Indian rupee losing run seen extending on familiar headwinds: oil, demand‑supply mismatch
- The rupee is expected to open in the 94.64-94.68 range, traders said, after settling at 94.54 on Tuesday
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to add to its recent losses at Wednesday’s open, with the unrelenting rise in oil and a persistent demand‑supply mismatch in dollar flows keeping pressure on the currency, bankers said.
The rupee is expected to open in the 94.64-94.68 range, traders said, after settling at 94.54 on Tuesday. The currency has dropped 1.74% over the past seven sessions, managing only one marginal advance.
During this slide, which has pushed the currency to within about 0.5% of its all‑time low of 95.21 hit in late March, traders have consistently pointed to heavy dollar demand from oil refiners and limited willingness by exporters to sell forward dollars in a challenging rupee environment.
The rupee’s outlook remains decidedly negative, with little sign that oil prices will pull back, as negotiations between the United States and Iran to halt the conflict have made no headway.
Oil prices were choppy on Wednesday amid reports that the United States would extend its blockade of Iranian ports, a move likely to prolong supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region. Brent crude was trading near $111 a barrel, having rallied more than 20% since April 20.
On a daily basis, there is a mismatch in flows, with dollar demand consistently outstripping supply and keeping the rupee under pressure, a currency trader at a private-sector bank said.
Oil‑related dollar demand, persistent equity outflows, speculative positioning skewed to long‑dollar bets, and a lack of exporter interest in selling dollars have together made it “difficult for the rupee to stabilise”, he added.
Market attention will meanwhile turn to the Federal Reserve’s April meeting later on Wednesday, the last to be chaired by Jerome Powell. It is almost certain that the Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged.