FranceAgriMer keeps non-EU soft wheat export outlook unchanged

PARIS: Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday kept unchanged its monthly forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2025/26, ending a run of downward revisions in the previous four months.

Exports from France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, have been recovering from a slump last season linked to a dire 2024 harvest, but have been curbed by stiff competition in a well-supplied world market.

In a supply and demand outlook, FranceAgriMer left unchanged its estimate of non-EU soft wheat exports this season at 7.10 million metric tons. That would be more than double the 2024/25 volume. The office increased its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU in 2025/26 to 7.70 million tons from 7.57 million previously. That would be up 13percent versus 2024/25.

The increased outlook for intra-EU trade led it to trim its forecast of soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 to 3.31 million tons from 3.39 million last month.

The new stocks projection is still a third above last season’s level and a 10-year high, FranceAgriMer data shows. For barley, the office increased its 2025/26 stocks projection to 1.46 million tons from 1.38 million last month, due to an upward revision to harvest supply. For maize, projected 2025/26 stocks were raised to 2.36 million from 2.33 million, with an increased estimate of harvest supply offsetting a rise in expected EU exports.