MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week in response to market fears of a further escalation of the Iranian war and strong demand from importers, analysts said.
By the end of March, the pace of export shipments this season, which began on July 1, had for the first time exceeded the previous season’s levels.
Analysts said market prices do not yet reflect an attack on Sunday on a Russian grain ship in the Sea of Azov. The wheat-laden vessel, which public ship databases list at about 3,165 metric tons deadweight, sank after what a Russian official said was a Ukrainian drone strike.
One person was killed in what analysts said was the first known sinking of a grain-loaded ship in the Black Sea-Azov basin since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content for free-on-board delivery in May was USD239 a metric ton at the end of last week, up USD1 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Sovecon expects prices for Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content at USD238 to USD240 a ton FOB compared to USD239 to USD242 the week before.
The agency raised its estimate of wheat exports in March to 4.7 million tons from last week’s projection of 4.5 million tons. IKAR estimated March wheat exports at 4.7 million tons, up from last week’s projection of 4.6 million tons. The agency expects exports in April to reach between 4.0 and 4.5 million tons.
Rail carrier Rusagrotrans has raised its estimate for March to 4.85 million tons, up from the 4.65 million tons forecast a week earlier.
Wheat exports for the July–March period of the 2025/26 season are therefore set to reach 37.7 million tons, exceeding last season’s figures (36.3 million tons) for the first time this season, analysts noted.