Russian wheat exports stable as analysts raise March forecasts

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices remained stable last week, with no new obvious drivers for price movement, analysts said as they made further upward revisions to estimates for March exports.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in May was USD238 a metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Sovecon also expects prices to remain unchanged for Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content, at USD239 to USD242 a ton FOB.

The agency raised its estimate of wheat exports in March to 4.5 million tons from last week’s projection of 4.2 million tons. Sovecon also increased its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million tons to 46.5 million tons and its 2026/27 forecast by 2.1 million to 43.8 million tons.

IKAR estimated March wheat exports at 4.6 million tons, up from last week’s projection of between 4.4 million and 4.6 million tons.

Rail carrier Rusagrotrans has raised its estimate for this month to between 4.6 million and 4.7 million tons, up from the 4.3 million to 4.5 million tons forecast a week earlier. About 3.6 million tons of wheat was exported over March 1-23.

The weather continues to be favourable for the new harvest, analysts say.

Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said last week that 97percent of winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition. Spring fieldwork has already begun in 23 of the country’s regions.