US natural gas futures dip as mild weather, lower demand loom
NEW YORK: US natural gas futures eased about 1percent to a one-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in recent days.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.5 cents, or 0.8percent, to USD3.008 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since March 5.
In the US cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 29 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation’s biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG.
That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary six-week low of 106.7 bcfd on Wednesday, due in part to reductions in North Dakota, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
The North Dakota reduction was likely due to freezing pipes and wells earlier this week when overnight lows in Bismarck plunged to minus six Fahrenheit (minus 21 Celsius) on Monday, according to AccuWeather.
Those North Dakota pipes were likely already thawing with high temperatures expected to reach the 60-70s F in Bismarck on Wednesday-Saturday, according to the weather forecaster’s projections.
Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain low across most of the country through April 2, but noted extreme heat in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.
High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels near 98 F on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather. That compares with average highs of around 70 F in the City of Angels at this time of year.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.4 bcfd this week to 113.2 bcfd next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Average gas flows to the nine big US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid from a record 18.7 bcfd in February to 18.4 bcfd so far in March. That reduction was due in part to the outage of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG’s 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas on Monday and pipeline work expected to reduce feedgas to Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday.