NEW YORK: US natural gas futures slid about 2percent on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and a drop in global energy prices on a possible end to the war in Iran in weeks.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 2.2percent, to USD3.051 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The shutdown of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export production in Qatar last week due to the war in Iran removed about 20percent of global LNG supplies. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the US and Australia. Prices in the US have reacted to the Iran war, but not by as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more gas. Since the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, US gas prices have gained about 6percent versus around 48percent in Europe and 51percent in Asia. In the US cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas fell to a record low of negative USD7.15 per mmBtu, keeping the contract in negative territory for a record 23 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 32 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative 12 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with USD1.15 in 2025 and USD2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year, which should keep stockpiles steady at about 2percent below normal for the week ended March 6, the same as during the week ended February 27.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 25, which should keep heating demand and the amount of gas energy firms need to pull from storage low in coming weeks. The weather, however, is expected to be colder next week than this week.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.0 bcfd this week to 125.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.