Reflections on Pakistan after more than a decade on the ground
Having lived and worked in Pakistan for more than ten years, I have witnessed both its extraordinary potential and its recurring cycles of instability. I have seen resilience, entrepreneurial spirit, and youthful energy. I have also observed economic fragility, deteriorating security, and a weakening investment climate. Today, as Pakistan faces mounting external pressure from both India in the east and instability along the Afghan border in the west, an important question arises: Which should be addressed first — external strategic pressure, or internal structural reform?
From my perspective, the answer is clear. There is a Chinese saying: “To resist foreign threats, one must first secure internal stability.” In Pakistan’s case, internal political and institutional reform is not optional — it is urgent.
External pressure is real — but not the root cause
Pakistan has long operated under geopolitical constraints. Strategic competition with India, tensions along the Afghan border, and cross-border militancy are not new phenomena. These pressures require vigilance and defense readiness. However, external threats alone do not explain the country’s economic stagnation, capital flight, high inflation, or investor hesitation. History shows that nations can endure external pressure if their internal systems are stable, predictable, and efficient. When internal structures are weak, even manageable external risks become destabilizing. The greater vulnerability today lies not at the border — but within institutions.
A deteriorating business environment
As someone involved in agriculture, trade, and real-sector investment, I have seen firsthand the growing uncertainty facing businesses:
• Inconsistent policy direction
• Administrative inefficiency
• Regulatory unpredictability
• Weak enforcement consistency
• Rising security-related operating costs
Investors can tolerate moderate profit margins. They can tolerate competition. What they cannot tolerate is uncertainty. Capital depends on confidence. Confidence depends on institutional stability. When rules change unpredictably or enforcement appears selective, both foreign and domestic investors hesitate. The result is reduced investment, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, currency volatility, and rising economic strain. Without internal reform, external challenges will only amplify these weaknesses.
The youth dividend: opportunity or liability?
Pakistan’s demographic structure is frequently cited as strength. Nearly 60% of the population is under the age of 30. In theory, this represents a powerful demographic dividend. But a young population becomes an economic asset only when supported by quality education, vocational training, industrial expansion, and job creation at scale. Without these, demographic advantage risks becoming social pressure. Idle youth are not a failure of the people — they are a failure of systems. When employment opportunities lag behind population growth, social frustration rises, and instability becomes more likely. Education reform and skills development are not long-term luxuries. They are immediate necessities.
The security–economy cycle
Pakistan appears to be caught in a troubling vicious cycle: security incidents increase, investment declines, economic opportunities shrink, public dissatisfaction grows. And extremist narratives find space. Economic stability is itself one of the strongest forms of national security. Military measures can address immediate threats, but only institutional reform can break the cycle.
Political and legal reform: the urgent priority
If I must prioritize, internal political and legal reform comes first. Without these reforms, economic stimulus packages or temporary fiscal adjustments will have limited impact. Key areas require attention:
Rule of law and judicial independence: Long-term policy stability and impartial enforcement are essential for economic confidence.
Administrative transparency and anti-corruption measures: Reducing discretionary power and increasing procedural clarity will lower investment risk.
Education and workforce development: Transforming youth into skilled labour is the single most powerful economic strategy available.
Policy continuity across political cycles: economic planning must extend beyond short-term political horizons.
Why do I still believe in Pakistan? Despite these concerns, I remain hopeful. Pakistan possesses a hardworking agricultural base, entrepreneurial talent, strategic geographic positioning, a large domestic market, and a young and ambitious population. The country does not lack potential. It lacks structural consistency. If institutional reform strengthens governance, if education transforms youth into productivity, and if legal stability restores investor confidence, Pakistan can convert its demographic weight into economic power. External pressure can be managed by a strong internal system. Without internal order, even limited pressure becomes destabilizing.
Conclusion
After more than a decade living and investing in Pakistan, my concern is not rooted in pessimism, but in long-term engagement. Those who stay and build in a country inevitably want it to succeed. External challenges are serious. Internal reform is more urgent. Stabilize within — and the nation will be stronger in facing outward. 250 million Pakistanis have a choice: reform or live and let die.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
The writer is a Chinese national and CEO of a large industry in North Gwadar Free Zone