Russia’s century-old dream of reaching warm waters quietly materialised during President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to India. For generations, Russian strategists—from the Tsars to the Soviet admiralty—sought reliable access to the Indian Ocean, the gateway to global trade and energy. That ambition had always been blocked by geography, rival powers, or political constraints.
The agreement termed ‘RELOS’ changed that in one stroke. With India opening its ports and logistics network to the Russian Navy, Putin’s trip to New Delhi early this month effectively turned a historic aspiration into operational reality. Russia is now no longer confined to the frigid northern seas—it has finally secured a southern maritime foothold in the world’s most strategic ocean.
What looks like a bureaucratic logistics pact is, in fact, the breaking of a strategic monopoly.
The ‘RELOS’ logistics pact between India and Russia has triggered one of the most profound shifts in the global power architecture since the end of the Cold War. For the first time, Moscow now gains routine naval access to the Indian Ocean through India’s ports, airfields, and maintenance facilities. This breaks the long-standing US monopoly over the world’s most strategic maritime space—the artery of global oil, energy routes, and Asia–Middle East shipping.
‘RELOS’ is not a routine military agreement. It hands Russia the ability to refuel and repair thousands of kilometres from home, opening a new front in great-power competition.
In return, which is hardly a counterbalance, India’s navy and air force gain reliable access to Russian facilities across the Arctic and Pacific, including ports along the Northern Sea route, enhancing sustained maritime presence and operations in previously inaccessible waters.
The reaction across capitals is unprecedented: panic in Washington, calculation in Beijing, alertness in Moscow, and pressure on New Delhi. The Indian Ocean is becoming the frontline of the next great-power contest, and India faces the most consequential strategic dilemma of its century: remain the anchor of a US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, or emerge as the southern pillar of a Russia-centered Eurasian arc.
The United States has three core interests in the Indian Ocean: control of energy routes, dominance of chokepoints, and denial of access to rival navies. ‘RELOS’ undermines all three.
Washington’s alarm was immediate. The sudden dispatch of US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer this week to New Delhi is not about tariffs; it is about strategic retrieval. It is a strategic intervention aimed at pulling India back into the American orbit at the very moment when New Delhi and Moscow are knitting together deeper military, naval, and energy architecture beyond Western oversight.
At stake is America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which depends on India serving as the democratic counterweight to China and the southern anchor of US maritime dominance.
Now that assumption is collapsing. Washington’s concern goes far beyond military logistics. ‘RELOS’ coincides with India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil, the expansion of India–Russia defence ties, and the quiet emergence of a Eurasian energy-security bloc that excludes Western influence.
Will the US attempt containment? Yes—through diplomatic urgency, economic incentives, and subtle threats. India will face pressure on arms purchases, oil imports, technology access, and strategic cooperation within the Quad. But India understands that the US needs India to balance China far more than India needs exclusive alignment with Washington. That could give New Delhi rare leverage.
China’s reaction could be complex—but far from hostile. It is likely to be pragmatic
A more independent India—one that is not fully under US influence—helps Beijing by preventing the encirclement strategy Washington envisions through the Quad.
It could benefits from any development that prevents the Indian Ocean from becoming a US-controlled lake. A Russian naval footprint makes the region multipolar, which suits Beijing’s long-term calculus.
However, China will interpret ‘RELOS carefully’.
A Russian naval footprint in the Indian Ocean introduces another big-power actor in China’s maritime backyard. Beijing will want assurances that Russia’s presence does not drift into an anti-China coalition subsidized by India.
Beijing will watch Indian ambitions carefully, but Russia’s entry serves as a balancing force, ensuring India does not emerge as the sole gatekeeper of the Indian Ocean.
‘RELOS’ reshapes the region well beyond India. Central Asian republics already tethered to Moscow may align more closely. ‘RELOS’ has created a gravitational pull toward a broader Eurasian coalition. South Asia and Asia Pacific now have options to play within the multipolar maritime order evolving in its proximity.
Pakistan faces both concern and opportunity. On one hand, India-Russia naval alignment raises concerns about enhanced Indian reach in the Arabian Sea.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s own proximity to Russia and China allows it to benefit from a broader Eurasian realignment. Moscow’s interest in warm waters is not limited to India. Russia’s larger push toward warm waters could bring Moscow closer to Pakistan, especially through Karachi and Gwadar. Islamabad can benefit if it positions itself as an alternative or complementary maritime partner for Russia.
‘RELOS’, most likely, would not undermine CPEC or Gwadar port. If anything, Russia’s southward search for access could breathe new life into Gwadar as an additional logistical node. The region’s shift toward multipolarity reduces US surveillance over Chinese projects.
Iran is arguably the biggest winner. ‘RELOS’ strengthens the north–south axis linking Russia, Iran, and India. Tehran’s Chabahar Port gains new relevance, and Russia’s need for diversified southern access expands Iran’s geopolitical value—especially as it pushes back against Western pressure.
Afghanistan becomes an unavoidable transit node for Eurasian connectivity. Any stable future in Afghanistan strengthens the Russia–India–Iran corridor, giving the landlocked state fresh relevance despite its internal challenges.
Middle Eastern states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would welcome the diversification. A Russian naval presence reduces exclusive US dominance and gives Gulf monarchies more strategic bargaining power in energy and security affairs.
The Indian Ocean is no longer unipolar. Russia is in. China is entrenched. The US feels cornered. India is emerging as the pivot between continental Eurasia and maritime Asia.
‘RELOS’ marks the start of a new maritime century—one in which no single power controls the Indian Ocean and the global energy routes. India redraws the maritime map.
The decisions New Delhi makes in the next decade will define Asia’s balance of power for the next fifty years.
The challenges for India are severe and several. ‘RELOS’ is India’s biggest strategic gamble — Russia enters a maritime earthquake India cannot reverse. Whereas, India is at the crossroads: US pressure vs Eurasian alignment.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is a former President OICCI; Global Business Leader and Strategic Affairs Analyst