Capacity utilisation factors of Uch gas fields in draft IGCEP assumptions: OGDCL, PD lock horns

ISLAMABAD: The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has reportedly locked horns with the Power Division for giving minimal consideration to the capacity utilization factors of Uch-I and Uch-II gas fields (Balochistan) in the assumptions of the draft Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025–35, sources close to Chairman NEPRA told Business Recorder.

The issue has been raised by OGDCL’s Managing Director/CEO, Ahmed Hayat Lak, in a letter to the NEPRA Chairman, with copies to the Secretaries of Petroleum and Power, among others. In the letter, he referred to IGCEP 2025–35, wherein the following proposed capacity utilisation factors (in percentage terms) for Uch-I and Uch-II have been submitted by the Independent System and Market Operator of Pakistan (Guarantee) Limited (ISMO) to NEPRA for its review and approval under the provisions of the Planning Code of the Grid Code: for Uch-I are 67.9 percent (2024), 38 percent (2028–30), 9.5 percent (2031), and zero (2032–35); and for Uch-II, 55.7 percent (2024–25).

Furthermore, Section 7.3 of the IGCEP, titled “The Way Forward,” emphasises harnessing the potential of local coal — particularly Thar coal — in future iterations of the plan. However, no attention has been given to the utilization of available and proven low-BTU gas reserves of the Uch field, which, if left untapped, may pose a risk to recoverable reserves.

Uch Gas Field: Wapda seeks PD’s support for cut in fuel gas demand

According to the OGDCL Managing Director, the Uch gas field, from which gas is supplied to both Uch-I and Uch-II power plants, is a low-BTU gas field located in Dera Bugti. OGDCL has drilled 39 wells and installed gas processing and allied facilities to fulfill its commitments under the Gas Supply Agreements (GSAs) with Uch-I and Uch-II.

Uch gas has low calorific value but a high concentration of acid gases such as CO?, N?, and H?S; therefore, it is suitable only for power generation. This is why the indigenous resource was allocated to Uch-I and Uch-II to meet the country’s electricity demand.

The OGDCL chief further highlighted the characteristics of the reservoir supplying this gas, noting that it comprises three lobes — eastern, central, and western. The eastern lobe has low volume but high BTU content, whereas the central and western lobes have low BTU but high volume.

Gas produced from each lobe is blended in specific proportions to make it suitable for processing to meet the requirements of Uch-I and Uch-II. Irregular or constrained gas flow from the wells may alter reservoir behaviour, potentially resulting in the loss of a major national resource. This sensitivity, he stressed, requires the reservoir to be managed with utmost care.

OGDCL has stated that the Uch gas reservoir has been in production for the last 25 years, having already produced more than 2.7 TCF of gas. The estimated remaining recoverable reserves are around 2.6 TCF — sufficient for another 25 years, based on the current production profile. Water coning or influx is a common phenomenon in many gas reservoirs during the later stages of their life.

A recent study by an international consultant confirmed the presence of an aquifer in the Uch reservoir and showed that the water-to-gas ratio is increasing, with the western lobe exhibiting the most significant aquifer influx. The transient effects of past production patterns are still propagating through the aquifer.

“If the gas production rate is reduced significantly, as indicated in IGCEP 2025, the aquifer influx would overtake the gas, ultimately reducing the reservoir’s gas recovery,” he cautioned adding that “Once aquifer influx is established in a gas reservoir, the most reliable and recommended approach is to expedite early gas recovery at optimum rates to maximize total recovery.”

In view of the findings from the recent reservoir study, OGDCL is installing compression facilities — expected to be completed by June 2026 — and has already drilled three infill wells to maximize ultimate gas recovery, he added.

The OGDCL Managing Director further warned that reservoir failure would not only result in the loss of this indigenous resource but would also have severe consequences for OGDCL, the Federal Government, and the Government of Balochistan. Moreover, irregular and low gas intake by Uch-I and Uch-II would lead to inefficient operations, significantly increasing wear and tear on gas processing plants and causing wasteful gas flaring.

“To enable OGDCL to efficiently manage and make the best use of this national resource — and to avoid any negative consequences arising from reservoir failure — the capacity allocation factors for Uch-I and Uch-II in IGCEP 2025 should be revised upward, in line with Section 7.3 of IGCEP 2025, which emphasizes optimal indigenization and reduced reliance on imported fuels in the national interest,” he concluded.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025