Flood fury in Pakistan

The floods of 2025 are not just another chapter in Pakistan’s long history of climate disasters; they are a stark warning of what the future holds if we fail to act. Year after year, lives and livelihoods are washed away, losses are counted, tears are shed, lapses in the system are identified, people’s resilience is put to test but no lessons learned. Each time the governments scramble to provide relief with no standard operating procedures to work on. This reactive cycle must end.

Pakistan needs a paradigm shift: from relief to resilience, from reaction to prevention, and from fragmented responses to coordinated planning.

The floods sweeping through Pakistan this monsoon season have once again laid bare the country’s vulnerability to extreme climate events. What began with devastating cloudbursts in the northern areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has cascaded into Punjab, displacing over a million people, and is now advancing with fury towards Sindh. Much of Punjab has already been inundated, exacerbated by India’s release of water into the rivers flowing downstream to Pakistan.

The crisis is not just a humanitarian tragedy—it is also an indictment of our institutional shortcomings, planning failures, and lack of urgency in building resilience despite repeated wake-up calls.

The human toll has been staggering. Since June, over 800 lives have been lost across the country. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Buner district alone more than 270 died, while many others remain missing. Punjab has witnessed over 120 confirmed deaths, and Sindh is bracing for the worst. In total, more than 1.2 million people in Punjab have been directly affected, with 250,000 forced to leave their homes. Livestock, the backbone of rural households, has perished in the thousands, compounding the misery.

The scale of displacement is overwhelming. Nearly 700 relief camps and 265 medical facilities have been set up across Punjab, but these are far from sufficient to meet the needs of those who have lost everything. Families now crowd in makeshift shelters, with food insecurity and health risks growing by the day. Diseases such as diarrhea, cholera, and dengue typically follow in the aftermath of stagnant floodwaters, stretching an already fragile health system to breaking point.

Economic damages are harder to quantify immediately, but early assessments point to severe destruction of homes, crops, roads, and bridges. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone, 45 bridges and 200 kilometers of roads were washed away, cutting off entire valleys. Nationally, thousands of homes lie in ruins. Given the precedent of the 2022 floods—which caused losses worth nearly USD 40 billion—it is clear that the 2025 floods, though not yet fully assessed, will once again shave off precious points from GDP growth and deepen fiscal stress. For an economy already grappling with debt repayments, inflation, and low growth, this is a catastrophe layered upon crises.

This trauma invokes question such as:

1. Why do these disasters occur year after year?

2. How effective is the role of the state and NDMA in such disasters?

3. Are lessons learned and measures for the future taken?

4. Is the capacity of water storage and dam to contain storm water sufficient?

5. What is the effectiveness of the urban storm water drainage systems?

6. The enforcement of land use regulations;

7. The safety out of forests and catchments;

8. The cross-border coordination effectiveness;

9. The ‘Global Support Programme’;

Every quite a few years, Pakistan has been struck by floods that cause death and destruction on a mass scale. These are the predictable outcome of structural weaknesses interacting with climate shocks.

First, climate change has shifted the baseline. Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to more intense monsoon downpours. The Himalayas and Karakoram ranges are also experiencing accelerated glacial melt, feeding rivers and creating unstable glacial lakes prone to bursting. The frequency of cloudbursts—sudden, localized torrents of rain—has increased in mountainous regions, triggering flash floods that leave little time for escape. A recent attribution study confirms that monsoon rains in Pakistan are 10–15 percent heavier now than before due to global warming.

Second, environmental mismanagement worsens nature’s fury. Rampant deforestation in upper catchments reduces the soil’s ability to absorb water, while unchecked construction on floodplains blocks the rivers’ natural paths. Informal settlements often mushroom in vulnerable areas without proper drainage or resilient housing structures, leaving the poor at greatest risk.

Third, weak infrastructure and poor planning mean Pakistan lacks adequate defenses. The country has few large dams relative to its population and water needs, leaving little storage capacity during peak floods. Barrages and embankments are old, under-maintained, and often breached. Urban drainage systems, especially in Karachi and Lahore, are clogged or outdated, turning heavy rainfall into urban flooding within hours.

Fourth, cross-border dynamics play a role. India’s sudden release of water into the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers this season, without adequate coordination, has worsened flooding downstream in Punjab. While the Indus Waters Treaty provides a framework for water sharing, operational coordination during flood seasons has become weak, leaving Pakistan vulnerable to abrupt surges.

Disaster management in Pakistan is the formal responsibility of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), established in 2010. In principle, it coordinates with provincial disaster management authorities (PDMAs) and district administrations to plan, prepare, and respond. In practice, however, NDMA remains underpowered, reactive, and stretched thin during crises of this magnitude.

To its credit, NDMA issued early warnings this season and helped set up relief and medical camps. Evacuations in parts of Punjab saved countless lives. Yet the scale of displacement exposed severe gaps: shelters were insufficient, coordination was weak, and local governments were ill-equipped. The problem lies less in intent and more in institutional capacity.

Floods of this scale cannot be handled by ad hoc relief measures alone. They require long-term planning, strict enforcement of zoning regulations, investment in resilient infrastructure, and community-level preparedness. These have historically been missing, as governments have swung from one crisis to the next without building structural resilience.

This year’s floods should not be seen as an isolated tragedy but as yet another reminder that Pakistan is living in the eye of the climate storm. The country contributes less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it remains among the most climate-vulnerable nations. It is imperative to act now on multiple fronts.

Large-scale projects like the Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand dams, alongside dozens of small reservoirs, must be fast-tracked. Without storage, floodwaters devastate communities instead of being harnessed for agriculture and energy. At the same time, river embankments, barrages, and flood channels require urgent strengthening to handle higher-than-historic flows.

Cities need modern drainage systems and green infrastructure—such as permeable pavements, rain gardens, and retention ponds—to absorb heavy downpours. Encroachments on nullahs and storm drains must be cleared permanently, not just temporarily after disasters.

The state must prohibit construction in floodplains and enforce building codes to ensure structures can withstand heavy rains. This will require political courage, as vested interests often benefit from illegal developments.

Massive reforestation campaigns in upper catchments can slow runoff, stabilize slopes, and reduce landslides. Forests act as natural sponges, and their absence magnifies flash floods downstream.

NDMA should be empowered with greater resources and trained personnel. District-level disaster units must conduct regular drills, stockpile supplies, and map vulnerable zones. Community-based disaster response groups can play a vital role in early evacuations.

Pakistan must push for stricter implementation of flood-season protocols under the Indus Waters Treaty. Advance notice of India’s water releases can save thousands of lives downstream. Diplomatic engagement, backed by international mediation, if necessary, is essential.

As climate change is a global problem, Pakistan should continue to press for “loss and damage” financing from international platforms. The 2023 Geneva pledges of over USD 9 billion after the 2022 floods show that the world recognizes Pakistan’s plight—but such assistance must translate into long-term resilience, not just short-term relief.

Concluding, it needs to be understood that the fury of the floods is unstoppable, but their damage can be managed. The time for excuses has passed. What Pakistan needs now is foresight, political will, and collective action to ensure that the tragedy of 2025 does not repeat itself in 2026 and beyond.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025