US natural gas prices jump on colder forecast, sanctions worries

NEW YORK: US natural gas futures jumped about 9% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week and worries about supplies from Canada related to US President Donald Trump’s sanctions.

In 2024, about 9%, or roughly 8.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of the gas consumed in the US came from Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That compares with average US imports from Canada of around 7.6 bcfd during the prior five years (2019-2023).

Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 26.8 cents, or 8.8%, to $3.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 6:34 a.m. EST (1134 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Dec. 4 for a second day in a row.

That futures price jump pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.5 in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Jan. 21. All of the curtailed output was back in service by Jan. 28.