EU wheat rallies on war, weather risks

23 Apr, 2024

PARIS: Paris wheat futures jumped on Monday to their highest since late January as adverse weather in parts of Europe and a Russian strike on a Ukrainian Black Sea port stoked supply concerns and prompted short-covering, dealers said.

May milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext was up 4.0% at 214.75 euros ($228.58) per metric ton at 1458 GMT, after earlier reaching its highest since Jan. 29 at 216.25 euros.

The front-month contract led gains as its approaching expiry next month encouraged participants to cover large short positions.

But new-crop positions also rose sharply, with September futures adding as much as 3.8% to also hit their highest in nearly three months, at 223.25 euros.

“There’s a bit of everything at play,” a futures dealer said. “The cold weather may hurt (EU crops) a little, the rain has faded from weather forecasts for southern Russia, and there’s a squeeze on short positions in May futures.”

Cold weather expected to bring morning frosts to parts of France, Germany and Poland early this week was raising concern about possible damage to cereal and rapeseed crops well-advanced in their growth following recent warm spells.

In top wheat exporter Russia, dry weather in the south of the country was starting to create doubts about what have been favourable harvest prospects.

Consultancy Sovecon said on Friday it had reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop by 1 million tons to 93 million tons, in its first downward revision for its 2024 outlook.

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