To understand why the foreign minister replaced the finance minister at the CCI (Council of Common Interests) you only have to understand why Ishaq Dar was made foreign minister in the first place. He never impressed anybody in any of his stints as finance minister. And his only claim to fame – keeping the rupee at around a hundred to the dollar – was not just none of the finance minister’s business, since the money market was always the central bank’s domain, it was also a singular failure because it was a ridiculous policy to think of, much less implement, when the trade balance was in red.

Yet he still got to do it a good two or three times. That alone tells you a lot about the people that are in charge of this Islamic Republic one more time. In fact, the last time he returned as finance minister, after poor Miftah was so unceremoniously thrown under the bus despite doing a much better job than his predecessor and definitely his successor, the market actually cheered as if ending the free float and compromising the EFF (Extended Fund Facility) was just what the country needed. Nothing could be farther from the truth, as Mr Market also realised in due time.

This time, though, either the establishment or coalition partners – most likely the establishment – simply refused the finance ministry for Dar, therefore Samdhi ji was accommodated at the foreign ministry. And if you think it’s absurd that PML-N let an unsuccessful accountant and incompetent former finance minister run the foreign ministry, how absurd do you think it is that the establishment – or whoever – didn’t let him near the finance ministry, because of his track record, but was OK with him at the foreign ministry?

But what about poor Muhammad Aurangzeb? One day the brilliant banker was the toast of the town, the man whose vision and skill set would save the country from default, restore growth, and all that. And the next he was shoved out of the CCI and CCoP (Cabinet Committee on Privatisation) to make way for Samdhi Dar.

These are early days, but Aurangzeb is clearly still more banker than politician, or he’d already be talking about his feelings. Yet you don’t really need to hear him say it out loud; that the way he’s being tossed out of key committees must make him feel that he was not approached for this position, but that he somehow weaseled his way into the ministry.

There’s already chatter that PML-N is so used to Ishaq Dar as finance minister that it is willing to upset the whole apple cart, even this late in the game, and restore him there; no matter what the establishment or coalition partners have to say about it.

You might think that that stretches common sense just a little bit. But then you ask yourself what a foreign minister is doing heading the CCoP and CCI, and what Ishaq Dar can possibly bring to the foreign ministry, and you have your answer.

Over the years, I’ve seen some finance ministers come and go from the vantage point of the newsroom. And I felt this one’s days were numbered because he got off on the wrong foot; bringing his Wharton no-nonsense, clinical thinking to government and boasting about taxing the never-taxed holy cows of this land. That claim and his own boss slowly clipping his wings is as clear as two-plus-two and/or black-and-white for the lower-middle class that is not powerful enough to dodge the taxman in this country.

A serious finance minister that must negotiate a make-or-break bailout programme with the IMF yet is without voice in the CCI — the constitutional forum for matters and disputes related to the federation and provinces – as well as the CCoP – when the programme will hinge on privatisation of loss-making SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) — is as good as a banker floating his resume for a new job.

For the people, there are already signs that the change at the ministry would be about the same as the change in their lives. For example, they just heard that CPI for March was up “only” 20.7pc, the lowest reading in almost two years and below the finance ministry’s own projection. But just then they ran into petrol and electricity price hikes, which are sure to stoke further cost-push inflation. Just like Dar’s influence at the finance ministry, nothing changes.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024