The government will likely surpass its Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target for the current fiscal year (FY24), according to brokerage house JS Global which shared its projection in a report on Wednesday.

“As we enter the last quarter of the fiscal year, one of the government’s non-tax revenue targets i.e. PDL appears to be progressing well,” read the report.

“We estimate that Rs729 billion of Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) has been collected during 9MFY24, approximating 84% of the FY24 collection target of Rs869 billion,” said JS Global.

This is largely on the back of higher PDL allocation towards fuel prices, averaging at Rs59/56 per litre for MS/ HSD during 9MFY24, despite industry offtakes registering 11% YoY decline during the period, the brokerage house noted.

“We project total collection for the full year to clock in over Rs900 billion, on current level of PDL. Despite inflationary pressures, this target appears achievable, in our view,” it said.

Sale of total petroleum products in Pakistan clocked in at 1.15 million tons in March, an increase of 4% year-on-year.

However, furnace-oil (FO) sales nosedived by 48% YoY in March 2024, amounting to 0.04 million tons.

Sale of MS (petrol) increased 3% YoY, clocking in at 0.57 million tons in March. The volume of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) jumped by 17% YoY, settling at 0.46 million tons in March 2024.

“After a period of 21 months, the first YoY increase is observed in POL product sales,” said the brokerage house.

“However, sales continue to remain dull despite modest economic recovery witnessed in recent months after lifting of import restrictions,” it added.

Company-wise, PSO’s offtake depicted an increase of 11% YoY in March 2024, which was majorly driven by an increase in sales of MS and HSD, which improved 13% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, sales of FO registered a decline of 66% YoY.