Australia, NZ dlrs gains

26 Feb, 2024

SYDNEY: The Australian dollar was aiming for a third straight week of gains on Friday as it benefits from carry demand against the yen, while the New Zealand dollar weathered a dire report on retail sales that raised the risk of recession.

The Aussie was up 0.4% for the week so far at $0.6562 , having topped out at $0.6595 overnight. That put it comfortably above a recent three-month trough of $0.6443, with the next target being major resistance around $0.6625.

The kiwi dollar held at $0.6198, having risen for seven straight sessions to as high as $0.6218. It was up 1.1% for the week, with the next chart barrier around $0.6242.

Both were buoyed by carry trades as investors borrowed yen at zero rates to buy higher yielding currencies. The Aussie hit a nine-year peak of 99.02 yen, having climbed for three weeks in a row to breach resistance at 98.60.

The kiwi had climbed 1.3% on the week to another nine-year top of 93.36 yen and was fast approaching a 2015 peak of 94.05 yen.

The kiwi has got an extra lift from speculation the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might hike its 5.5% cash rate at a policy meeting next week.

Markets are pricing in a one-in-three chance of a rise on Feb. 28, and a 60% chance of a move in May. Analysts polled by Reuters showed the vast majority expected no more hikes, with a first easing possible in August.

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