Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow just 1% in the year to March 2024, the World Bank said in a report published on Tuesday, describing a “broad-based slowdown” across its key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.
Myanmar has seen major upheaval since a 2021 military coup upended a wave of unprecedented reforms introduced following decades of isolation and economic decay for a nation rich in natural resources.
Many Western investors have exited Myanmar and broad sanctions are impacting trade, with the private sector’s access to foreign currency a major challenge as foreign reserves come under pressure.
“Little economic growth is expected in Myanmar in the near term as rising conflict, trade and logistics disruptions, kyat volatility and high inflation combine to negatively impact businesses and households,” the World Bank report said, referring to the local currency.
The conflict follows a deadly crackdown by the military that spurred a resistance movement that has joined forces with some ethnic minority insurgents to try to stifle the junta and test its ability to rule.
More than 2 million people have been displaced by fighting since the coup, the United Nations estimates.
The report said Myanmar’s economy was 10% smaller than it was in 2019, making it the only economy in East Asia yet to return to its pre-pandemic level. It also highlighted a nearly 29% surge in consumer prices for the 12-month period up to the end of June.
“High food price inflation has had a particularly severe impact on the poor,” said Mariam Sherman, World Bank country director for Myanmar, Cambodia, and the Laos.