NUSA DUA, (Indonesia): A global vegetable oil supply deficit next year is still very likely due to the impact of the El Nino weather pattern, while demand growth is still very high, leading analyst Thomas Mielke said on Friday.

Mielke, head of Hamburg-based analyst firm Oil World, said global demand was seen growing by 5.6 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, but world production growth of palm oil, which make up a big chunk of global edible oil, would be the smallest in four years at 0.2 million to 0.3 million tonnes.

He told conference participants in Bali that palm oil output from Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil exporter, would stagnate in 2024, while second-largest producer Malaysia’s output would be close to 18.4 million tonnes.

Mielke said Indonesia’s declining trend of palm oil yields was “alarming” and had so far not been reversed. He anticipated a further year-on-year decline in palm oil exports from the three biggest producers in the January-June period.

Indonesia is likely to ship 30.5 million tons of oils and fats this year and Malaysia would export 17 million tons, he said.