US natural gas prices down

20 Oct, 2023

NEW YORK: US natural gas futures eased about 1% to a two-week low on Wednesday on record output and forecasts for the weather to remain mostly mild through early November, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.

Traders noted that prices were down even though the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was rising to near record highs.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.3 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $3.056 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since Oct. 4 for a third day in a row.

That put the contract down for a sixth day in a row for the first time since October 2022.

The lack of big price moves in recent weeks has cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to 49.5%, the lowest since April 2022.

Historic daily volatility hit a record high of 177.7% in February 2022 and a record low of 7.3% in June 1991. Historic volatility has averaged 75.1% so far this year, compared with a record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%.

In other news, US energy firm Chesapeake Energy has approached Southwestern Energy, a peer valued by the stock market at more than $11 billion including debt, about a potential acquisition, people familiar with the matter said.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to an average of 103.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September and a record high of 103.1 bcfd in July.

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