SINGAPORE: Spot gold may end its bounce below a resistance at $2,009 per ounce, and resume its downtrend thereafter. A five-wave cycle from $1,804.20 has peaked at $2,048.71.

A retracement analysis on the cycle suggests a target zone of $1,898-$1,926.

The current drop consists of three waves. Wave b adopted a complex structure, unfolding within a range of $1,969 to $2,009. This wave is expected to be reversed by the following wave c.

A break above $2,009 could lead to a gain into the $2,018-$2,030 range.

On the daily chart, a rising trendline suggests a target around $1,923.

Spot gold may fall into $1,987-$1,994 range

Bearish divergence on the RSI increases the chance of this target being fulfilled.

So far, three peaks formed around $2,073 since August 2020. They suggest the development of a giant triple-top.