Oil stable ahead of key US inflation data, set for monthly drop

Updated 31 Mar, 2023

LONDON: Oil prices were stable on Friday ahead of key US inflation data which could give clues on future interest rate moves.

On the month, oil was on course for its weakest performance since November.

Brent futures, which have risen nearly 6% this week, were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $79.45 a barrel at 1041 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude was up 52 cents, or 0.7%, to $74.89, having gained about 8% so far this week.

But the contracts were set for 5% and 3% monthly drops, respectively, after hitting their lowest since 2021 earlier in the month in the wake of the largest bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis.

Oil prices have broadly recouped these losses as worries about a full-blown global banking crisis have abated after banks in the US and Europe were rescued.

US oil may drop into $70.55-$71.49 range

Markets are waiting for US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, which are due at 1230 GMT.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the core PCE index to ease to 0.4% in February from January and stay broadly steady on an annual basis at 4.7%.

On Thursday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill intended to bolster U.S. oil and gas production while scaling back climate initiatives.

Oil prices were buoyed after producers shut in or reduced output at several oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq following a halt to the northern export pipeline.

Also sending a bullish signal was data showing US crude oil stockpiles fell to a two-year low.

Prices have also found support as China’s manufacturing activity rose in March.

With oil prices recovering from recent lows, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia are likely to stick to their existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, sources said.

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