SINGAPORE: The CBOT soybean May contract may bounce to $15.06-1/4 per bushel, before resuming its downtrend trend.

The drop from $15.33-3/4 could be well broken down into five smaller waves - a typical structure indicating the completion of a small cycle.

The current bounce could be as strong as the one from the March 8 low of $15.11, to extend to $15.06-1/4, as pointed by a falling channel.

These waves make up a part of a bigger wave C from $15.38-1/2, which could travel to $14.66-1/2, its 100% projection level.

CBOT soybeans may drop further towards $14.78-3/4 to $14.83-1/4 range

Support is fixed at $14.92-1/2, a break below which could trigger a drop into $14.85 to $14.89-1/4 range. On the daily chart, the contract failed to break a support at $14.84-3/4.

The direct result of this failure is a bounce.

This is the second failure after the first one in February.

It is generally observed that the second bounce could be much weaker.

The bounce may most likely be limited to $15.09-1/2.