Be careful what you wish for! Pakistan’s economy and security seem to have suffered in the aftermath of the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan and the subsequent regime change there about 18 months ago in August 2021. It is one thing to lead a ragtag group of warriors to victory, but quite another to govern a large country with a long history of ethnic and religious faultiness that are made worse by big-power competition in the region.
Around the time the Taliban formed their interim government in Kabul in September 2021, the Biden administration moved to freeze $7 billion worth of foreign reserves belonging to the Afghanistan’s central bank. This huge seizure was perceived in some quarters as the Americans’ bitter reaction to their acrimonious, botched pullout from Kabul, but it appears more to be a case of exercising leverage and choosing caution not to be seen as propping up a violent, hardliner anti-women group of militants.
The US later decided to set aside $3.5 billion out of that haul for potential lawsuit payout to 9/11 attack victims and transferred the remaining half as a ‘trust fund’ for the Afghan people to the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. Another $2 billion worth of Afghanistan’s central bank reserves are reportedly stuck in financial systems of Europe and Middle East. Besides being unable to access this precious central bank cash, the new regime in Kabul has no access to external aid or official loans.
Earlier this week, diplomats from Pakistan and regional countries including Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China and Iran jointly called on the West to unfreeze Afghanistan central bank’s assets and help the country’s population that is facing a difficult situation. There is clear incentive for regional countries to want peace and quiet in Afghanistan – besides, West’s long-term security is also dependent on containing terrorism threats abroad. The catch is that the Taliban are unwilling to change their policies.
As a result, the economic and security burdens of an already-failed regime have increased on neighboring countries, especially Pakistan. On the economic front, the reported rampant smuggling of foreign currency, food commodities, agricultural inputs and other essentials to the war-torn country has exacerbated the shortages in Pakistan. As for security, there has been a significant spike in Afghanistan-origin, TTP-led terrorism incidents in Pakistan since the Taliban takeover in August 2021.
In addition, Pakistan has also faced problems at IFIs in part due to its alleged role in keeping the Taliban relevant during the NATO mission in its west. Now, facing economic difficulties itself, Pakistan is hardly in a position to offer major reprieve to a pariah regime. The security mess has further undermined distrust between the two countries, leading to border clashes and verbal accusations in recent months. This is completely contrary (a nightmare, rather) to the dreams of the architects and believers of ‘strategic depth’.
Pakistan’s decision to send a high-level delegation to Kabul last month may lower the temperature for the time being. But Afghanistan’s problems that indirectly affect Pakistan have more do do with the world not according diplomatic legitimacy to the Taliban, as the latter has shown complete disregard for human rights and basic freedoms, especially for vulnerable sections of the population including women and girls. Unless that approach changes materially and soon, it is hard to see Islamabad getting off the hook.