Heavy is the head that wears the crown – especially the one that is still trying to govern Pakistan amid myriad and exacerbating economic, security, political and social challenges. Dazed and confused, the PML-N led government at the center seems to be out of energy and out of depth in dealing with the crises. And yet it continues to stay on (in the name of saving the country from default at the expense of its politics), but really it is presiding over a mess that it can’t realistically clean up in a limited amount of time.
Avoiding elections may be a face-saving strategy for Shehbaz and Co., but it can only buy so much time without solving fundamental governance issues and macroeconomic challenges. If the provincial elections in Punjab are somehow held by April under the apex court’s intervention, the PTI is expected to return to power, considering recent poll results. That would put even more political pressure on the federal government, which can constitutionally go on for just a few more months after that until August.
A rating downgrade in the middle of a crisis is a serious setback. Frustrated at being unable to get the IMF program back on track despite implementing several tough tax, tariff and exchange rate measures, the finance ministry is now blaming external forces for heightened uncertainties on BOP front. However, with even friendly donors holding back, it may simply be a case of poor macroeconomic outlook and an economic credibility gap than a conspiracy to punish Pakistan. Diplomacy alone is not working.
The political alternative is unlikely to have a fate different than the incumbents. Few among the key power players seem to want another Khan government. Beaten by the ex-premier’s regime-change conspiracy narrative, the so-called establishment has little incentive to downgrade itself to a junior partner under an assertive PM. Mainstream political parties fear yet another turbo-charged victimization drive under a future Khan government. Friendly countries (and those in the West) have no love lost for the former PM.
The constituency for holding early elections, therefore, has been largely absent since Khan was ousted in April last year. This state of affairs possibly explains why the PDM government is able to carry on despite so much turbulence. While it is desperately hoping to turn around the worsening economy so it can face angry electorate, the ruling coalition will outdo itself if the economy is able to muddle through until August under another IMF program. Clinging on to power beyond that time will be both unconstitutional and futile.