SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support at $85.69 per barrel, with a good chance of breaking below this level and falling towards $83.50-$84.34 range.

The strong rise on Oct. 13 proved to be a pullback towards a rising trendline.

It has been totally reversed.

The reversal confirmed a continuation of the downtrend from $93.64.

The trend is still well controlled by a set of projection levels on the fall from $90.07.

Oil prices triggering an early recession?

Given that the support at $85.69 triggered the bounce on Oct. 13, a much weaker bounce may have just been triggered, which could be limited to $87.20-$87.88 range.

On the daily chart, a big black candle on Oct. 14 engulfed the white candlestick on Oct. 13.

The pattern confirmed the three black crows forming between Oct. 10 and Oct. 12.

Oil is expected to fall towards $77.24, as both a wave C from $104.46 and the wave (C) from $123.68 look incomplete.