Indonesia’s rupiah climbs on palm oil export permits; Asia FX upbeat

The rupiah extended gains on Friday as Indonesia’s decision to issue palm oil export permits after lifting a ban on...
03 Jun, 2022

The rupiah extended gains on Friday as Indonesia’s decision to issue palm oil export permits after lifting a ban on shipments last week supported sentiment, while other Asian currencies were up against a softer dollar ahead of a crucial US jobs report.

Indonesia’s rupiah strengthened 0.3% to hit its highest since late-April, while the South Korean won was up 0.8%.

Most Asian currencies, which had struggled to notch gains over the week, strengthened as market participants awaited key US jobs data later in the global trading day for confirmation of a slowdown in the employment market, which could convince the Federal Reserve to scale down its hawkish stance on interest rates.

A senior Indonesian trade ministry official said on Thursday the government had issued 160 export permits to 18 companies to ship palm oil.

The country had previously imposed a three-week export ban to control soaring domestic prices of cooking oil, made from palm oil.

Indonesian rupiah firms as palm oil export ban ends; Asian shares rise

The yield on Indonesia’s 10-year benchmark note hit its lowest since late-April and bonds across the yield curve strengthened, helped by a soft domestic inflation print.

Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated in May due to rising food prices and airfares, but was still within the central bank’s target range.

Analysts at Nomura expect Bank Indonesia to leave its policy rate unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting this month.

They, however, warned that in doing so, “BI could be viewed as already behind the curve, which would threaten IDR stability amid widening current account deficits and a faster Fed hiking cycle, forcing BI to ultimately hike more aggressively.”

Jakarta stocks jumped nearly 1% to hit their highest since late-April, while shares in Mumbai and Seoul rose 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.

South Korea released data showing its consumer price index rose 5.4% in May from a year ago on a global surge in materials and food costs, beating the 5.1% growth estimated in a Reuters poll and cementing the case for further rate hikes.

“The central bank’s likely intense focus on inflation should favour urgency rather than patience and suggests hikes will continue to be back-to-back,” Brian Tan, an economist at Barclays said in a note.

He now expects the Bank of Korea to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points at all four remaining meetings this year.

Markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand were closed, thinning trading volumes across Asia.

Highlights

** Indian shares hit four-week high, set for third straight weekly gain

** Indonesia’s rupiah hits highest since April 27

** Yield on Indonesia’s 1-year and 3-year notes hit lowest since April 13 and April 26, respectively

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