Netflix’s forecast as competition heats up

18 Apr, 2022

Netflix Inc is expected to report its slowest quarterly revenue growth in nearly eight years on Tuesday, but the focus will be on its forecast in the run-up to new seasons of popular titles including “Stranger Things” and “Ozark”.

The company is spending billions to bring more originalfilms and TV shows, as well as build mobile games in an effortto add subscribers in a post-pandemic world where it isgrappling with competition from HBO Max, Amazon.com Incand Walt Disney.

Netflix could lose about a million subscribers due to itsRussia exit, analysts have indicated.

Analysts expect Netflix to add 2.6 million subscribers inthe first quarter and 2.7 million in the seasonally weak secondquarter, according to Refinitiv data, still below the averagenumber of subscribers it added during the peak of the pandemic.

Analysts say the company’s subscriber growth will come fromdeveloping regions where it has cut prices, while increasedprices in the United States and Canada would fund new content.

Netflix pauses all projects, acquisitions in Russia

“Longer-term, most investors struggle to see the catalystfor a major re-acceleration in net additions in FY23 or beyond,” Dan Morgan, Senior Portfolio Manager at Synovus Trust, said.

The context

Netflix has bought three gaming studios to diversify sourcesof revenue, but analysts do not expect a big bump from thatsoon.

“We are not very convinced that users will really view videogames as anything other than a minor feature,” Morningstaranalyst Neil Macker said, adding the effort is just a“distraction” from its core business.

Netflix’s most formidable challenger is Disney+, whichlaunched in late 2019 and expects to have about 230 million to 260 million subscribers over the next two years. Platforms like HBO Max, Apple TV+ and Amazon Prime have also seen a significant growth in subscribers.

And while Netflix has had several Academy Award nominations in the past, Apple became the first streaming company to win a Best Picture Oscar for “CODA”.

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