NEW YORK: Signs are growing that a global supply chain crisis which has confounded central bank inflation forecasts, stunted economic recoveries and compressed corporate margins could finally start to unwind towards the end of this year.

But trade channels have become so clogged up it could be well into next year before the worst-hit industries see business remotely as usual - even assuming that a new turn in the pandemic doesn’t create fresh havoc.

“We’re hoping in the back half of this year, we start to see a gradual recession of the shortages, of the bottlenecks, of just the overall dislocation that is in the supply chain right now,” food group Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane told Reuters.

But he added: “I wouldn’t think that until 2024, there’ll be any kind of return to a normal environment because it has been so dramatically dislocated.”

The global trade system had never contended with anything quite like the coronavirus.

Starting in 2020, companies reacted to the economic downturn by cancelling production plans for the next year, only to be blindsided by an upswing in demand prompted by rapid vaccine rollouts and fiscal support for rich-world household spending.