SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support at $81.79 per barrel, a break below which could cause a fall into $80.14-$81.16 range.
A wave (3) from $73.14 completed on Monday. It consists of five smaller waves. The wave 4 ended around $79.19, which works as a target.
However, this target looks too far away to be possible. It might be more realistic to target $81.16 or $80.14. The current fall is driven by a wave (4), which would be sharp, as the precedign wave (2) looks sideways.
A break above $82.81 could lead to a gain to $83.64. On the daily chart, the contract is pulling back toward a former resistance at $81.78, the 161.8% level of an uptrend from $67.56.
The pullback may extend below this level, as indicated by signals on the hourly chart. The uptrend is expected to resume towards a range of $88.50-$90.57 once the pullback is over.
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