SINGAPORE: The CBOT soybean July contract may bounce moderately to $16 before retesting a support at $15.97-1/4 per bushel, as suggested by its wave pattern and a retracement analysis.

A five-wave cycle from the March 31 low of $13.55 has completed. The current fall may extend towards the bottom of the wave 4 at $14.91-1/4.

The retracement analysis on the cycle reveals a support at $15.79-1/4, the 50% level, around which the contract manages to stabilize.

The current consolidation may continue. It is likely to be limited to $16. A break below $15.79-1/4 could cause a fall to $15.58-1/2.

On the daily chart, the contract is riding on a wave (4) which is travelling towards the bottom of the wave 4 around $13.55.

It must be noted that the whole uptrend from $8.33-1/4 remains steady and strong, the wave (4) is highly likely to end above $13.55.

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