SINGAPORE: CBOT March wheat may bounce into a range of $6.38 to $6.40-3/4 per bushel, as it has managed to hover above the Jan. 11 low of $6.28-3/4 after briefly piercing below this level.

This low works as a support, joining hands with the one at $6.23-1/4 to stop the fall and trigger a bounce.

It is not very clear how strong the bounce could be, which could match the one from the Jan. 20 low of $6.56-1/2, to extend to $6.45, as indicated by a falling channel.

The bounce could be much weak as well, to end around $6.38. A fall below $6.28-3/4 could confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards $6.16-1/2 to $6.23-1/4 range.

On the daily chart, a retracement analysis reveals a strong support at $6.29, the 61.8% level, which holds well.

The contract may bounce towards $6.41-1/4.

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