Ever since the inception of human being, the importance of food and clothing, now called economy, has been the matter of great importance for individual, area and community. God has guaranteed food not to every human being but to all living creatures but worldly restraints on free-movement of food-grains from surplus areas to deficit areas create artificial disparity in its distribution making it more acute to the extent of famine conditions in food deficit areas and food glut in surplus areas.
Clothing is next to food but is less vulnerable to deficiency as compared to food items. If we go deep in the global economic history, we find that Indian sub-continent had been a rich area in availability of food and clothing for centuries. Cotton was grown in Indian sub-continent roughly some 7,000 years ago from now and almost all forward processes of ginning, spinning, weaving and garmenting were practised at different times initially manually and then mechanically. As such, cotton textile has played a very important role in the agriculture, trade, economy and politics of South Indian sub-continent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh ) for centuries. According to the book Introduction: Cotton Textiles and Global History - Between 1200 and 1800 there was a steady expansion of cotton textile consumption and manufacturing around the world and cotton textiles displaced ramie, hemp, linen, wool, and other competing fibres from Japan and China to Europe and North America. After 1500 A.D. cotton textiles became as most important manufactured goods in the world and Indian sub-continent became its focal point exporting cloth in hundreds of million yards to even remote countries located in Africa and Europe continents beside Asian countries. The Britons dominated over the resources and economy of Indian sub-continent virtually since the establishment of The East India Company in seventeenth century but effectively after the battle of Plassey in 1757 and then more effectively after battle of independence in 1857.
Now, with the start of 21st. century, India which got independence in 1947, appears to be reverting to its very important position of a textile giant in the world. The elimination of export quotas and import duties on export of textile goods from 1st. January,2005 under WTO regime has helped Asian countries ( mostly having their own cotton crop and cheap labour) such as China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh to play their pivotal role in global textile economy. These four countries claim share of 40% in the world textile and clothing exports of 2009. Here, the two most important textile exporting countries eg China and India are discussed in detail.
China is the largest cotton producing, cotton consuming and textile goods exporting country in the world. By looking at the figures of Table 1, we see that in 10 years period from 2001 to 2011, the area under cotton has increased by 14.11% ( from 4.82 to 5.50 Mln Hectares), lint yield by 20.33 % (from 1102 to 1326 kgs per Hectare), cotton production by 37.30% ( from 24.40 to 33.50 Mln 480-lb bales) and domestic cotton consumption by 65.71% (from 26.25 to 43.50 Million 480-lb bales). In last 10 year period, cotton area has increased by only 14.11 % which works out to 1.41% annual. China gives top priority to production of food-grains and wants to satisfy its domestic food-grain requirements through domestic production.
In view of the limitations of increasing cotton area and priority to area under food-grain, the increase in cotton area appears quite difficult. Cotton productivity ( lint production per unit area) is already high in China at Kgs1326 per Hectare against world average yield around Kgs 750 per Hectare. In last 10 years, increase of 20 % in yield has been reported which works out to average increase of 2.0 % which is not remarkable. As a matter of fact, China has already increased its yield to a high level of more than 76% over world average and falls in the category of very high yields. It is assumed that China may not have good potential in yield increase.
However, some cotton areas in China which are lagging well behind country average of Kgs 1326 per Hectare may be geared up to increase their yield but this may not increase average country yield to a remarkable level. However, 2 to 3 % per year increase in yield may be possible on adoption of new agronomical technologies. In 10 years period, cotton production has increased by 37.30 % as a result of increase in cotton acreage and field yield. When increase in area is restricted and field yield is reaching saturation point, cotton production cannot be increased otherwise. As such, there is not much scope of increasing cotton production on present ground realities. China is fully aware of its limited potential in increasing its cotton production remarkably. Simultaneously, China appear determined to further boost its textile industry for securing even larger share in exports of textile goods so the excuse of lower domestic cotton crop cannot be accepted. Hence, China is committed to increase its domestic textile production on even larger cotton imports. In 2011-12 season, China produced 33.4 million bales and will be consuming 43.5 million bales-shortfall being of 10 million bales against which so far China has committed import of some 1.8 million bales and by the end of this season it may go to over 20.0 million bales. The excess import purchase will be added to Cotton Reserve Stocks. China obliges its cotton growers by fixing Minimum Support Price of cotton at the level almost equal to the mill-delivery cost of imported cotton. Generally domestic cotton is used for domestic textile use while imported cotton is used for manufacturing textile products for exports. China adopts cotton policy to commit foreign cotton imports at relatively lower rates so as to have edge on export price of textile goods. Presently, US is the largest exporter of raw cotton around 12.0 million bales in 2011-12 while their domestic consumption has been drastically reduced from 11.0 million bales in 1997 to 3.4 million bales this season. Now, main exporters are US at 12.0, India at 7.75, Australia at 4.0, Brazil at 3.90 and CAS at 3.5 million bales.
India: The Table 1. India increased its cotton area from 8.73 Mln Hectares to 12.5 mln hectares in ten year period of 2001-11 - increase being 43.2 % ie 4.32% per year which is almost three times of that of China. India's lint yield increased from 307 in 2001 to 479 Kgs per Hectare in 2011 - increase being over 56 % which is about 180% more than China's growth in Yield. India increased its cotton production from 12.30 mln bales to 27.5 mln bales in 10 years - increase being over 123 % against 37.30% of China. India increased its cotton consumption from 13.27 mln bales to 20.50 mln bales - increase being about 55 % against China's consumption growth of 65.71% which is over 10% higher than India. The study of the available data tells that India can further increase its cotton area considerably in next decade. The most important factor is that of very low yields in India which is over 56% less than world average yields and 177 % below than average yield of China. If India attains lint yield equal to that of world average, India can produce 43.05 million 480-lb bales without increasing its cotton area.
If India attains China's lint yield of Kgs 1326 per Hectare, India's cotton production may swell to over 76 million 480-lb bales on same area of 12.5 million hectares. India has great potential in boosting its cotton production by 200 % only by increasing its cotton area by 25% and attaining world average yield of KGs.750 per Hectare. India has already left behind US in cotton production and it can drag China down from 1st. position to second in next 5 years by 2016-17. On the strength of its 33% surplus cotton crop, India is reported to have chalked out plan to boost cotton mill-use by 50 % to over 30 million 480-lb bales. by 2016-17. Potential in growth of per capita use of cloth appear higher in China than in India. As living standard in China is continuously increasing, its local demand of cloth may increase which may adversely affect its textile export growth. India has great potential in increasing its cotton production, textile goods production and increasing its export substantially.
ASIA: In the recent past, Asia had been the centre of trade in the world and was supplying cotton cloth even to distant areas of North America, Africa, Far East and Middle-east countries. Again, Asia is going to play a leading role in commodity export particularly textile goods export right from the start of 21st. century. Asia's exports of textile and clothing in 2009 was 53% of world exports and China and India jointly claimed lion share of 68% ( China 60% and India 8%) in Asia's total exports of textile and clothing goods in 2009. China, Hong Kong, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam, six Asian countries jointly claim 94% in total Asia's textile exports and 50% world's total textile and clothing exports in 2009 and their share is increasing in coming years.
It appears quite certain that Asia would lead World Textile Economy in this 21st. century and may be next 22nd, century with China and India being the textile giants of the future. China and Hong Kong may maintain their high growth rate in exports of textile and clothing as they have already made high success but India, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh especially India and Vietnam have great potential and are likely to post high growth rates in coming years. Thus Asia's share in world textile exports may jump from 53% in 2009 to around 75% by 2025 thus consolidating its position as leader of World Textile Economy.
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TABLE 1:COTTON DATA OF CHINA AND INDIA
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(2001-02 to 2011-12)
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Area Sown (mln hectares) Lint Yield (kg/hectare) Production (mln480 lbs bales) Consumption (mln-480lbs bls)
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Year India China Total World India China Weighted World India China Total World India China Total World
%age Average average %age %age
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2011 12.50 5.50 18.00 50.00 479 1326 738 748 27.50 33.50 61.00 49.3 20.50 43.50 64.00 58.87
2010 11.16 5.15 16.31 48.69 496 1289 746 749 25.40 30.50 55.90 48.48 20.50 46.00 66.50 58.18
2009 10.31 5.30 15.61 47.16 486 1315 767 734 23.00 32.00 55.00 54.1 19.85 50.00 69.85 58.64
2008 9.41 6.05 15.46 50.52 523 1321 835 764 22.60 36.70 59.30 55.3 17.75 44.00 61.75 55.98
2007 9.44 6.20 15.64 47.68 554 1299 849 794 24.00 37.00 61.00 50.96 18.60 51.00 69.60 56.31
2006 9.17 5.95 15.12 43.83 518 1299 825 770 21.80 35.50 57.30 46.92 18.10 50.00 68.10 54.96
2005 8.87 5.35 14.22 40.98 467 1156 726 730 19.05 28.40 47.45 40.76 16.70 45.00 61.70 52.82
2004 8.78 5.90 14.68 46.72 471 1118 644 741 19.00 30.30 49.30 40.54 14.80 38.50 53.30 48.85
2003 7.63 5.30 12.93 40.03 399 976 636 652 14.00 23.80 37.80 39.08 13.50 32.00 45.50 46.38
2002 7.67 4.50 12.17 39.64 301 1219 640 644 10.60 25.20 35.80 39.34 13.30 29.90 43.20 43.90
2001 8.73 4.82 13.55 40.21 307 1102 590 637 12.30 24.40 36.70 37.16 13.27 26.25 39.52 41.86
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TABLE 2. COMMODITY AND TEXTILE GOODS EXPORTS OF CHINA AND INDIA
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2000 2009
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Commodity exports (US $ Blns)
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World 6,450 12,490
China 249 1,201
India 42 163
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Textile goods exports (US$ Blns)
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World 355 527
China 52 167
India 12 22
Hong Kong 37 32
Vietnam 2 10
Bangladesh 5 12
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