The present PPP government, led by an 'accidental' president, surviving for over four years in the face of tsunami-like situations of unparalleled corruption, runaway inflation, tattered economy, catastrophic energy situation, unhinged law and order, rubbish state of governance, is mind-blowing. The first thing Imran has to remember is that his tsunami will be against an 'out of the blue' President, who was himself swept in by a tsunami, the one to hit the country following the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto.
When it comes to tsunamis, therefore, the president and his band of merry men, who pass for rulers, know a thing or two about them. They know of the tsunamis' power to sweep in, as they were swept in, and also the reverse the power to sweep out, as Imran would have them swept out. The power of tsunamis 'reverse sweep', is the fear that for the last over four years has been the driving force for all policies and actions of the president and his merry band, the sole measure of which has been how effectively the policies and actions will serve to 'nip in bud' any signs of beginnings of a tsunami.
A 'nip in the bud' network developed fast, and became one of the most quick-witted arms of the Presidency, with the occupant's wits acting as a catalyst. The parliament, with all its other foibles, was also bundled to serve as a prime 'nipper in the bud'. The very first bud it 'nipped' was of the president's questionable eligibility to be the head of state under the constitution. It voted unanimously for him without bothering how, as stipulated in the constitution, an active Co-Chairman of a political party, and the one in power to boot, can be politically neutral.
It ignored the constitutional stipulation that the president be free of any hint of wrongdoing or corruption, least of all known world-wide as Mr 10%. It overlooked the stipulation that the president in every other respect, including graduation, must fulfil the same conditions as a member of parliament. It overlooked a lot more, so did the judiciary of the time The 'nip in bud' network through some deft strategizing, which essentially consisted of making benefits of 'teamwork' with the president very hard to say no to, has steadily expanded until it is now hard to count any political individual, assemblage or faction who, or which, is not part of the network. The new look senate, masterfully brought into place with no costs spared, has added new strength to the parliament as prime 'nipper'.
Out of all individual scalps in the belt, Aitzaz Ahsan's must be one of the most prized. The prime minister is equating the writing of letter to Swiss authorities with 'treason', and is ready to place his head on the block to save the president. Babar Awan is ready to eat as humble a pie as required in the president's interest, while Zulfiqar Mirza has laid his political future on the line to instill the fear of the Sindh card in likely 'spoilers'. Few leaders can boast of 'loyalists' such as these.
The 'nip in bud' network has become the president's mainstay. The Bhutto name and indirect lineage have begun to show signs of fatigue, as props or crutches. Through successful rallies in Karachi and Lahore and the gush of public support, Imran and the PTI have involuntarily 'helped' strengthen the network, by panicking the die-hard challengers of the president into becoming 'voluntary' members of his 'nip in the bud' network.
The 'electables', as Imran looks upon the disgruntled elements from other parties who have joined the PTI, are showing signs of turning into bit of a drags. If Imran seeks to bank on such 'electables', he would know that the two main parties have many more of them. He would also know that the vote bank forming for him is of voters who are hungry and desperate for change, and for whom the status quo 'electables' are stomach-churning. Such voters are not only the young, amongst them are countless middle aged, mid career, retired professionals and others who are desperate for a break from the old order. If there has to be a PTI a tsunami, it will be a creation of such voters.
Imran will be up against the culture of 'it is not the voters who count, but those who count the votes'. This culture surfaced most recently in all its vividness in a rural Sindh constituency, where the feudal lady PPP candidate slapped the female in-charge of the polling station, with the senior police officer present, looking on as respectful minions. The casual PPP response to this incident, with one of its senior leaders, Raja Riaz, defending the slapper, and the masterminding of the senate elections, says it all for the 'free' and 'fair' elections coming up.
The army has intervened in the past, and each time the army was cheered by the people as a deliverer from corruption and despair. It did not matter that the army failed to govern as much as the 'electables'. During most of the past four years, however, whether through design, or circumstance, the army has been kept busy defending itself against the discomfiting inferences, which have not been helpful to the aura of uprightness and invincibility that surrounds the army. However, unlike the past governments of 'electables', the present one does not have to keep one ear primed for the sound of marching boots.
A good development has been the emergence of an independent judiciary, whose restoration the president did his best to avoid, but in the end failed to prevent. This failure can lead the country out of the decades of depraved governance, by self-indulgent rulers, and has to be sustained. If the army cannot, or does not intervene, it should be standing behind the judiciary to assist in the implementation of its constitutional and lawful decisions and orders.
Like it or not, one has to hand it to the president for making it to the top constitutional slot despite constitutional inconsistencies, and remaining there, against all bets, for as long as he has, through stratagem which has turned all meaningful opposition into a snivelling 'coalition', and the more recalcitrant, into panicky deal-mongers, which has politicised the institution of bureaucracy where it is little more than a handmaiden, and maneuvered all others to serve his purpose. The tsunami that sweeps Imran's PTI in, and the president and his dispensation out, will have to be no less powerful than the tsunami that hit Japan a year ago.
(The writer is former corporate executive)