German exports bounced back in January, helped by strong demand from outside the crisis-stricken euro zone, widening the trade surplus and bolstering hopes that Europe's largest economy will have avoided a winter recession. Seasonally-adjusted data from the Federal Statistics Office showed exports jumping 2.3 percent, beating the 1.6 percent rise forecast in a Reuters poll of 18 economists. Exports had dropped 4.4 percent in December - the steepest fall in nearly three years.
"Exports have recovered from the setbacks at the end of the year," said Christian Schulz at Berenberg bank. "Germany is profiting from its strong diversification. When the euro zone is flagging then demand from emerging economies helps." Unadjusted data showed exports to euro zone countries rose by just 4.6 percent in January, while exports to European Union countries outside the currency bloc rose 7.1 percent and exports to other countries rose by 15.4 percent.
Strong exports helped widen the trade surplus to a seasonally adjusted 14.2 billion euros from 13.9 billion euros the month prior, beating a consensus forecast for a dip to 13.5 billion euros. The economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter on weakening exports and private consumption. Many economists hope it will remain stable in the first three months of 2012, thereby avoiding the two successive quarters of contraction which define a recession.
Industrial output jumped in January on strong construction and manufacturing output, data showed this week, and some German companies expressed cautious optimism on the basis of the solid demand seen in emerging economies. Friday's adjusted data also showed imports rising by 2.4 percent, beating the consensus forecast for a 1.4 percent gain and suggesting domestic demand is still lending support to the German and broader European economy. Unadjusted data showed imports from the euro zone rose by 7.1 percent, faster than exports to the currency bloc.