Venezuelans voted on Sunday in an opposition primary expected to name a young state governor to challenge Hugo Chavez later this year at a close presidential election in South America's top oil exporter. With all of Venezuela's 18 million registered voters able to take part, all eyes were on turnout as the clearest test yet of the opposition's strength and chances of ending 13 years of Chavez's socialist "revolution".
The reaction of Sunday's losers will show if the fledgling Democratic Unity coalition is ready to rally behind the winner and mount a dynamic campaign for the October 7 election that could chip away at the president's still-dominant popularity.
Miranda state governor Henrique Capriles, 39, is the frontrunner with a lead of as many as 20 percentage points over another governor, Pablo Perez, 42, and three other candidates.
"I aim to be a president who talks much less, who doesn't invade Venezuelans' personal lives so much," Capriles said in a pointed reference to Chavez's longwinded speeches, which local media are often obliged to run live. "The real game begins on February 13," he added, relishing the chance of a showdown.
Capriles hails Brazil's market-friendly but socially conscious policy model as his inspiration and has said he would take a "no shocks" approach to dismantling Chavez's statist economic policies such as currency controls. He might move faster to end controversial friendships with anti-US figures such as the leaders of Iran, Cuba and Belarus.
Across Caracas, pro-opposition neighborhoods were plastered with posters above young volunteers handing out fliers, while Chavez strongholds were devoid of any opposition propaganda.
Reading a newspaper in a sunny square deep in the pro-government 23 de enero area, 66-year-old retired pharmacy assistant Ramon Paraera said no one would beat the president. "Chavez is helping the people. He's with the people, not the bourgeoisie. Capriles is with the rich people," he said, sitting below a mural of revolutionary heroes including Che Guevara.
Results from the voting were expected late on Sunday. If Capriles is anointed as Chavez's official challenger, supporters in the OPEC nation will hope his opposition colleagues quickly, and convincingly, endorse him for the uphill battle ahead.
"We will all wait for the results arm-in-arm," Perez said. Peru's conservative Nobel literature laureate Mario Vargas Llosa praised the coalition this week for transcending the divided, mediocre opposition of Venezuela's past and avoiding "cannibalism" during the primary - in contrast to the US Republican race going on to the north. "Who says there can't be a Venezuelan spring?" he wrote.
Polls put Chavez well in the lead for October, but that could change if the opposition runs an appealing and inclusive campaign. Some experts warn that political violence could undermine the outcome - whoever wins the general election. Venezuela has largely avoided political bloodshed despite the deep polarization of Chavez's rule and a volatile mix of police corruption, the presence of organized criminal gangs, impunity and millions of guns in civilian hands. The opposition has accused the defense minister of planning to reject any opposition win on October 7, further fueling mistrust and threatening to break what the International Crisis Group think tank called a "fragile equilibrium".