A fierce cold spell has killed most of the winter barley and winter rapeseed crops and seriously damaged wheat in Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, while threatening winter crops and slowing exports in Russia. "We have written them off," Tetyana Adamenko, head of the agricultural department of Ukraine's meteorological service, told Reuters, referring to barley and rapeseed winter crops.
In Ukraine and parts of Russia's south, crops lacked a deep enough layer of snow to protect them from temperatures of about minus 25 Celsius (-13 Fahrenheit). Russia's state forecaster, the Hydrometeorological Centre, said on Thursday Russia's south would continue to face extreme frosts in the coming days, with temperatures 12 to 17 degrees Celsius below multi-year averages. The forecaster has been cautious about the impact of the cold on Russia's crops, and analysts say winterkill could turn out to be no greater than average when official statistics are released at the end of the month.
But in Ukraine, several days of record lows have been enough to kill most crops in eastern and southern regions, which were already weakened by drought during sowing, Adamenko said. "The situation across Ukraine is very varied: we have enough snow on 60 percent of our land in the central and northern parts, while a lack of snow has hit the east and south," Adamenko said.
Adamenko said last week that Ukraine's harvest of winter grains could fall by 42-58 percent to between 10 million and 14 million tonnes due to poor weather during sowing and wintering. Ukrainian agriculture officials and analysts say about 20 percent of winter grains have not come up because of drought during sowing, while 33 percent of those that had sprouted were in a poor state. The Farm Ministry said at least 2 million hectares of damaged winter crops would be reseeded this spring mostly with barley and maize.
Adamenko said Ukraine might lose 40 percent of the sown area. Ukraine sowed 8.4 million hectares for the 2012 winter grain harvest, including 6.7 million hectares of winter wheat, 1.4 million of winter barley. Ukrainian analysts have, by contrast, forecast losses of about 8 percent in Russia, in line with multi-year averages, although the harsh frosts in Russia's key southern exporting regions, if sustained, could cast doubt on next year's exports.
Russia is expected to reap 45.5 million tonnes from 16.4 million hectares sown to winter grains, SovEcon has forecast. Both countries have broached the possibility of new export restrictions this year to preserve domestic supplies but have so far abstained from imposing limits.