China, the world's largest soyabean buyer, is likely to increase its soyabean imports from the United States in coming weeks due to a poor domestic crop and drought in South America, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "Additional (US) purchases are very likely to be made in the next few weeks, primarily when a Chinese top-level delegation will visit the United States and sign trade agreements including US soyabeans and probably grains," Oil World said.
"The severe drought damage in South America will raise China's dependence on US soyabeans in 2012." China is expected to sign soyabean import deals during a US trip by Vice President Xi Jinping later in February. China, which buys 60 percent of the soyabeans traded globally, had reduced soyabean imports from the United States by 26.4 percent in December 2011 versus December 2010, following a drop in November as well, as South America cornered a large share of the business. China's own crop has fallen steadily in recent years and is likely to drop again this year as less land is planted to oilseeds and yields remain sluggish, Oil World said.
China's soyabean crop in the August 2011/July 2012 season will fall to 13.6 million tonnes from 14.9 million tonnes in 2010/11, Oil World estimates. China's 2011/12 soyabean crushings will rise to 55.90 million tonnes from 52.35 million tonnes in the previous season, and consumption of soyabeans for other uses will rise to 15.23 million tonnes from 14.37 million tonnes, Oil World said.
This will push 2011/12 soyabean imports to 55.50 million tonnes from 53.10 million in 2010/11, it said. Oil World also forecast that China's 2011/12 rapeseed/canola crop would fall to 11.6 million tonnes from 12.2 million in 2010/11. This means its rapeseed/canola imports will rise to 2.05 million tonnes from 1.27 million in the previous season, it said. "Chinese imports of Canadian canola will again be impressive in January/March 2012, probably reaching around 700,000 tonnes," it said.