Arabica coffee futures are likely to rise 1.4 percent by the end of 2012 but stay well below a 14-year peak hit last year as concerns about the global economy may overshadow prospects of a supply deficit, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. Rising output in main producers Brazil and Vietnam, the debt crisis in Europe, a strong US dollar, wet weather in central America, and supply-demand balance will also set the tone for both arabica and robusta futures this year.
"With improved supply fundamentals at the end of last year and investors sitting on the sidelines, coffee prices are expected to move mostly sideways during the first half of 2012," said Mu Li, commodity analyst with CPM Group in New York.
Front-month New York arabica will reach 230 US cents a pound at the end of 2012, up from 226.85 cents at the end of 2011, but nowhere near a 14-year high of 306.25 cents in May last year, according to a median forecast of 26 dealers and analysts. London second-month robusta futures, which often track arabica, were forecast at $1,890 a tonne at the end of 2012, up slightly from $1,810 at the end of 2011, but lower than a 3-year high of $2,672 struck in March last year.