The European Union's soft wheat crop should reach 133.3 million tonnes in 2012, an estimate lowered by 200,000 tonnes from December but still 3 percent above the 2011/12 season, French analyst Strategie Grains said on Thursday. The revision was mainly due to a lower crop area forecast for wheat in Germany, the analyst said in its monthly report.
At world level, Strategie Grains expected wheat production in 2012/13 to stay close to the level of 2011/12 as better harvests in the EU, China, the United States and Russia offset much smaller harvests in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia. In terms of supply and balance, the analyst estimated that due partly to a sharp fall in demand for animal feed linked to a lack of competitiveness against maize, global wheat stocks could gain 9 million tonnes at 211 million at the end of June 2013.
"The outlook on the world market in 2012/13 would therefore be somewhat heavier, with a lower level of world wheat trade (-6 million tonnes) in 2012/13," Strategie Grains said. "Given this outlook, we do not envisage that the EU will need to export its entire surplus in order for world supply and demand to balance," it added.
The analyst pegged EU wheat ending stocks on June 30, 2013 at 15.8 million tonnes, nearly 20 percent above its estimate for 2011/12, representing a surplus of almost 5 million tonnes over the minimum stock requirement. These were located mostly in Germany and France, Strategie Grains said.
The analyst's estimate for the 27-member bloc's 2012 barley production was unchanged at 54.5 million tonnes, up from 51.8 million tonnes in 2011/12, due mainly to a larger area sown. But Strategie Grains cut by 200,000 tonnes its estimate for the EU's 2012 maize production, now seen shedding 5 percent on 2011 to 62.3 million tonnes.