The eurozone posted its biggest trade surplus since mid-2009 in November, EU data showed on Friday, as exports grew at more than twice the rate of imports and signalled that Europe's economy may escape a prolonged downturn.
The 17 nations in the euro generated a 6.9 billion euro surplus in November on an annual basis, in non-adjusted terms, versus a 2.3 billion euro deficit in November 2010, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a trade deficit of 1.5 billion. The surplus was the biggest monthly gain since July 2009, and in seasonally-adjusted terms, the surplus was the largest since July 2004, Eurostat said. "The pace of economic contraction is no longer intensifying, it may be easing a bit," Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro, said of the eurozone economy. "But it's premature to say that the recession is ending," he said, forecasting a 0.8 percent shrinkage in euro zone gross domestic product in 2012.
A strong rise in exports in Germany and France, released in data earlier this week, along with only a slight fall in eurozone industrial output in November also appear to support the European Central Bank's view of "tentative signs" of a stabilisation after business confidence collapsed in mid-2011.
Business surveys at the end of last year also showed a slight improvement, although still in territory that appears to point to a contraction in fourth-quarter output. Eurozone exports grew a surprising 10 percent, suggesting that demand in the resilient US and Asian economies and a weaker euro may be helping exporters even as the eurozone's debt crisis stifles business confidence and investment.
Most encouragingly, euro zone exports jumped 3.9 percent on a seasonally-adjusted, monthly basis, although it did follow a decline of 2 percent in October and of 1.2 percent in September. A sharp slowing in demand was underscored by import growth of 4 percent in the month as the EU implements rigorous controls of public spending that are reducing the need for new goods.
Indebted euro zone states like Italy and Greece face years of austerity and low economic growth, dampening their demand. "This confirms industrial activity is export-oriented and domestic demand within the eurozone is still weak," said Dominique Barbet, a senior economist at BNP Paribas. Many economists say the euro zone economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011 and is likely to do so again in the first quarter of this year, sending the bloc into a recession so soon after recovering from the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.