Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will slow to an average of 3.7 percent in 2012, hit by turmoil in the global economy, a regional United Nations commission said Wednesday. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said growth in the region will drop from an estimated 4.3 percent in 2011.
"Although growth was already slower by the first half of 2011 when compared to 2010, most of the region showed a positive performance thanks to a favourable external situation," the commission said in releasing its forecast. "However, volatility and uncertainty complicated the global environment during the second half of the year, which caused a greater slowdown of economies compared to 2010, when the region grew by 5.9 percent."
The countries with the strongest 2011 growth will be Panama (10.5 percent), Argentina (9.0 percent), Ecuador (8.0 percent), Peru (7.0 percent) and Chile (6.3 percent), while El Salvador will only grow by 1.4 percent, Cuba by 2.5 percent and Brazil by 2.9 percent.
The commission said the slowdown could be worse than forecast if the debt crisis deepens in Europe. "There is a great possibility of a deep crisis in the eurozone, which would significantly affect the global economy overall and would impact our region" by hitting exports, investments and capital access, said ECLAC executive secretary Alicia Barcena. ECLAC projects that growth over the next year in the region will be led by Haiti with 8.0 percent, followed by Panama (6.5 percent), Peru (5.0 percent), Ecuador (5.0 percent) and Argentina (4.8 percent).