Airbus is on course to end 2011 with well over 1,600 orders, pushing Boeing to the lowest market share of their 40-year rivalry, but Boeing has stored up momentum for a comeback as both companies put fresh vigour into their most-sold jets. Although Boeing took a year longer than Airbus to revamp a key model to meet demand for lower fuel costs, both enjoy strong demand as Asian growth and the replacement of old aircraft in the United States blot out the euro crisis, at least for now.
The dominant jetmakers track each other more closely in deliveries, which drive revenues and are considered a gauge of competition. Airbus is expected to remain ahead for the ninth year running as it meets a record goal for 520-530 deliveries. Airbus has 1,529 firm orders so far this year, including an eight-plane deal announced since its November data.
The number already represents a new record for the European planemaker, which outsold Boeing for most of the past decade, sparking trade friction between Europe and the United States. This year's lead is particularly pronounced because of demand for the revamped version of its 150-seat A320 jetliner.
The jazzed-up A320neo aims to provide 12-15 percent in fuel savings due to new engines. Boeing has responded with the 737 MAX, a refresh of its most popular model that also involves new engines. Armed with data, both companies say their offering is better. Underlying Airbus orders are higher still at 1,609 including a previously announced 80-plane deal with Republic Airways that did not immediately enter the order book.
That leaves 174 provisional A320neo orders still to be confirmed, many of which may trickle through in coming days judging by a pattern of chasing deadlines in previous years. They include provisional orders for a total of 63 airplanes from Mexico's Volaris and Colombian AviancaTaca.
The industry will also be watching to see whether US lessor Air Lease Corp completes a draft order for 36 A320neo planes this year after its influential founder Stephen Udvar-Hazy expressed skepticism even while ordering the jet. The California-based company has said it is negotiating with Airbus over its future A350, providing some potential leverage.
Boeing, by contrast, has 894 orders so far this year. Business is up since 2010, but Boeing slumped behind Airbus in the 2011 race as it hesitated over whether to match the A320neo or build a more ambitious new aircraft at the expense of near-term sales. It chose the first option by launching the 737 MAX. Boeing has effectively ceded 2011 in volume terms to its arch-rival, but may spring further orders before the end of the year.
The only real suspense is over whether Boeing will achieve a 40 percent market share in 2011, the lower end of a 40-60 band that many analysts regard as the framework for a stable duopoly.
Currently it has a volume share of 37 percent and would need to sell over 180 aircraft by end-year to get back to 40 percent, with the target moving away from it as Airbus closes more deals. The picture for Boeing may not be as bleak as a single year's figure would suggest. On average the rivals remain close.