German oilseeds analysts Oil World has raised its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soyabean crop by 1 million tonnes after favourable weather but cut its forecast of Argentina's crop by 1 million tonnes, it said on Tuesday. Oil World raised its forecast of Brazil's soyabean crop in early 2012 to 74.30 million tonnes, up from 73.3 million tonnes it forecast in October but still down from 75.10 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2011.
It estimates Argentina will harvest 52.0 million tonnes in early 2012, down from 53 million tonnes it forecast in October but still up from up from 49.4 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2011. "Weather conditions and crop prospects have been favourable recently," it said of the Brazilian crop.
Argentine farmers are believed to have switched from soyabeans to corn sowings because of high prices and good sales prospects, it said. But it cautioned that the crop forecasts could only be achieved if the positive weather trend continues and above-average yields are achieved. Fertiliser purchases by South American farmers have also reached record levels, indicating that farmers are making efforts to further increase yields, it said.
The United States is the world's largest soyabean producer, with Brazil in second place, followed by Argentina. Argentine government officials have said Argentina will produce up to 53 million tonnes of soya this season. Brazilian analysts forecast a record 75.5 milllion tonne crop in early 2012 "During September 2011/February 2012 world supplies of soyabeans will be sufficient to cover demand, particularly because lower than expected consumption of soyameal has slowed soyabean crushings in the US and Europe," it said.