World paddy rice output is expected to grow 3 percent year-on-year to a record 721 million tonnes in 2011 thanks to increased planted areas and improved yields, the United Nation's food agency said on Friday trimming its previous estimate.
"At the current forecast of 721 million tonnes (481 million tonnes, milled basis), world paddy production would be 3 percent larger than in 2010 and breach last year's record," the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in its regular rice market update.
FAO said in its Food Outlook earlier this month global rice output was expected to rise 3.4 percent to 482.4 million tonnes (723 million tonnes of paddy). FAO has raised its forecast of international rice trade in 2011 to 34.3 million tonnes of milled rice, 9 percent higher than in 2010 and an all time high, fuelled by strong import demand in Asia and Africa.Much of the increase in demand is foreseen to be met by larger exports by Thailand and also India which eased in September its four year-long ban on non-basmati rice exports, the Rome-based agency said.
World rice utilisation in 2011-2012 is set to rise 2 percent, or 9.7 million tonnes, to 470 million tonnes of milled rice with food consumption rising 7.4 million tonnes to 397 million tonnes, it said. Global rice inventories in 2012 are seen at 149.0 million tonnes (milled basis) at the end of 2011/12 season, the highest carry-over since 2000/2001, and up 8 percent, or 10.5 million tonnes, from their opening level.
It would mark the seventh consecutive season of rice stock-rebuilding, the FAO said. Outlook for international prices, which were bolstered by reports of flood-related crop losses between June and September, remain highly uncertain in the coming months and will be influenced by the unfolding of crops to be harvested in the second quarter next year, the agency said. Policy developments, especially in Thailand and India, will continue to weigh heavily on the market, it added.