Chilean industrial production was flat in September from August and the July-September jobless rate held steady, data showed Friday, reinforcing views the central bank will hold rates for a fifth month. However the central bank said in minutes from its October meeting, when it held its key rate at 5.25 percent, that it had weighed a 25 basis point rate cut, and said it would act to "correct the path" of monetary policy if the global economic outlook worsens and impacts inflation expectations.
Chilean traders are betting on a rate cut within the next three months as the economy moderates as a result of a slow-growth global economy, according to the latest central bank poll of traders published this week. Concern at economic conditions in Europe and the United States has prompted a host of Latin American policymakers to end rate increases and even look at the possibility of cutting rates. Peru, Colombia and Mexico are on hold, while Brazil has slashed its rate to 11.5 percent despite concerns over inflation.
While industrial output was flat in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, output rose 5.2 percent in September from a year earlier, state statistics agency INE said, well above the median forecast of 3.3 percent in a Reuters poll. The jobless rate in September held steady at 7.4 percent, slightly above the 7.3 percent median view of analysts polled by Reuters.
"These figures reaffirm our positive view of Chile's dynamic economy and the limited deceleration of demand," Bci Estudios said in a note to clients. "We continue to think holding interest rates at 5.25 percent is the best short-term option, at least as long as there are no significant degrees of domestic and international deceleration with deflationary implications."
INE said output rose from a year earlier because of a "low base of comparison of various industrial divisions as well as a rise in domestic and external demand". Manufacturing and construction sectors boosted employment in the period, the agency said, though most economic activities reported a lower rate of employment growth. Output of top export copper in the world's No 1 producer fell 1.9 percent in September from a year earlier to 436,743 tonnes as output of both cathodes and concentrates fell, INE said.