Dry September weather in Brazil's center-south cane belt should slightly boost sugar output at the end of the current season approaches, Canaplan consultants said on Friday. But the lack of rain will count as a negative factor against the performance of the next crop which needs good rains during the early stages of growth, said Caio Carvalho, Canaplan director on the sidelines of a cane event.
"Cane quality may be a bit better (than previously anticipated) because of the dry September, maybe 1 kg of sugar more per tonne of cane," Carvalho said. Canaplan said cane output will likely be unchanged, but the amount of sugars per tonne of cane will likely rise to 135.5 kg per tonne compared with 134.5 kg seen in September, Carvalho said.
He added cane quality will fall in October due to the arrival of more substantial rains, but as the crushing season is due to finish soon - about a month earlier than in 2010 - this will have limited impact on crushing. Cane needs dry weather to concentrate sugars. It is best that drier conditions happen toward the end of the season prior to the arrival of the spring rains.
The sugarcane crop should recover slightly next season (April-March) with improved yields, after falling this year for the first time in a decade due to poor weather and investments, Manoel Bertone, head of production and agroenergy at the agriculture ministry said on Friday at the industry event. Independent analyst Agroconsult sees the 2012/13 crop rising 10 percent as yields recover partially from a steep drop this season.
Bad weather in 2010 and 2011 and low investments in cane renewal to replace aging plants have cut yields dramatically. "The cane crop should increase by around 10 percent (from the current 510 million tonnes) with a partial recover of yields," Agroconsult cane analyst, Fabio Meneghin, said on the sidelines of the seminar. Average yields in 2011/12 are seen at around 70 tonnes of cane per hectare, from more than 80 tonnes last season. Meneghin said a total recovery of yields to last season's level would be possible only in 2013/14.