China's September 2011/August 2012 soyabean imports are likely to rise to 58.50 million tonnes from 52.85 million in 2010/11 with continued Chinese buying set to support soya prices, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "China's dependence on soyabean imports has already reached alarming proportions and is set to increase further in 2011/12 owing to declining domestic soyabean output and rising demand," Oil World said.
"The large import requirements are likely to meet limited export supplies, which will probably contribute to a reversal of the recent downtrend in soyabean prices in the foreseeable future." The soyabean import forecast is up 0.2 million tonnes from Oil World's September estimate and means the country will need to import around 1.1 million tonnes a week, the analyst said. China's own 2011/12 soyabean crop is likely to fall to 13.7 million tonnes from 14.8 million tonnes last season, covering only around 19 percent of estimated consumption, Oil World estimates.
But China is likely to transfer soyabean purchasing to South America in coming months because of the expected poor crop in the United States, it said. The US Department of Agriculture on October 12 cut its forecast of US soyabean yields for the 2011/12 crop. "We consider it likely that China will need to raise soyabean imports from Argentina and Brazil to record levels of 10 and 22 million tonnes respectively in the season September 2011/August 2012," Oil World said.