Brazil's coffee belt may face more weather risks in the coming weeks if rainfall is erratic, as some forecasters fear, during the critical flowering phase that will define next year's crop. The forecasters have ruled out further frosts for the region.
Rains due in September could be erratic with signs a drought-provoking La Nina is forming, forecasters said. That could dent next year's output as trees now have low soil moisture reserves to rely on. A bumper crop next year from the world's top coffee grower would go a long way to easing tight supplies of beans that have helped sustain coffee prices in the last year at roughly double the level they had been at in the previous five.
Next year's output will be set in the next few months when the crop flowers. The flowers will need ample and consistent rains to prevent them from withering and falling off the branch before the tiny coffee fruit buds start growing. "(The La Nina) is coming on quite significantly, more than I thought it would be ... Certainly it is possible we will go through September without much precipitation," said forecaster Drew Lerner from US-based World Weather Inc.
Soil moisture levels are fairly low in the center of the coffee belt in Minas Gerais state, where rain was 73 percent less than average in August and 99 percent lower in July, leaving trees little in reserve should rains delay for long. If the weather stays drier longer than usual, which forecasters say is possible this year, it will not necessarily be bad news for the coffee harvest. Water stress can result in more vigorous, even flowering when rains return.
Worse would be the scenario that forecasters see as possible in which rain would return briefly and cause trees to flower only to stop again for weeks, leaving trees too thirsty to sustain the blossoms until tiny coffee-yielding buds form. "The big problem is (September) rain will be very spaced out which is not good as you could have flowering that aborts," said forecaster Celso Oliveira from Sao Paulo-based Somar.
Both forecasters said the risk of frost from here out was now virtually nil and minimum temperatures have not dipped to menacing levels for several weeks. Two frosts struck the coffee regions this year, a rare event and the worst freezes since 2000, but the consensus of agronomists is that damage to total output should be small.