All the nonsense about climate change and the various fora at which these were discussed the advice was 'do something about it'. It is like saying what to do without the ability to do it. Pakistan's farmers are facing a serious dilemma in as much as the economics is not working as it should.
The effects of the last floods have not been covered by the farmers or the various individuals that were helping the flood sufferers when this year there is again a threat of serious flooding in Sindh and in KPK. What can be done? What cannot be done?
Where is the insurance policy? How does one cover risk of this nature? How does one safeguard the small and poor farmer? There are a number of questions to which no one can give any plausible answers. There are none. Then once that is admitted other options are possible. Those options are difficult to implement for the simple reason that the farmer does not perceive these or for that matter no one really perceives these as real threats till they are upon you.
This year the rains came first to Lahore and to Sindh - the lower part of the province and that is going to be the pattern for some time to come. This was narrated to the highest level in a meeting and the reasons were indicated. The probability of that happening was also given. What that required was that the investment of infrastructure in Sindh was required to be modified as that would lead to a better drainage. That was not done and no one took it seriously. In former East Pakistan where the road structures were as they are here but where the roads cater for heavy rainfall the number of culverts per mile was roughly 35. Drainage as far as possible was maintained. In Sindh the situation is that since there was no rainfall or very scarce the roads are above the level of the fields leading to the stoppage of rainwater. Since there is no way to go and since the only way is evaporation or seepage in to the soil - both options are difficult. So there you have it. This year the left bank outfield drain [LBOD] was also awash with back channelling of water instead of draining that water out. All in all, the farmers as a consequence of no actions no policies have suffered. Again it is KPK, Sindh and the Punjab especially those rivers that were supposed to be dead but where India has released more water to safeguard themselves. The district of Kasur and the lower bordering districts to the River Sutlej are the major recipients of this disaster.
In a major hydrological survey done by a young PhD Dr Asim it was clearly indicated as to what is required. He first did a survey for the upper and then for the lower River Indus. We have abused the river and its hydrological system and as arrogant as we are we thought that we could manage the mighty Indus River. The banks are denuded of any trees or biological structures, the embankments have been raised as though it is possible to save the towns at the expense of the rural areas. The embankment mud [3 mcf] eventually washes down and raises the bed of the mighty Indus and the spillover effect is massive destruction and a change in the course of the riverbed. Well we made sure that the winter dead Indus would roar back into action and spread widespread misery in its wake. It is a wake-up call and we better understand that. This phenomenon has an 80 percent chance of repeating itself. All the rural roads in Sindh to various farms or in the rural areas are much above the farm field levels and the engineers those sears of the modern world must now suggest a solution. It is different in KPK. There the speed of the water flow will take anything in its wake. The enquiry into selfish behaviour is still going on in the floods of 2010. Selfish behaviour is with us for a long time. It will so remain. The loss will be colossal to the poor and starved small farmer. That is the lay of the land.
Since 93 percent of the farmers are small ones all that requires from the engineers is that they devise a system that does not have to worry about the Waderas but about the general ecology. Everyone, including the Wadera, will then be looked after. T is difficult for the engineers to see beyond their own disciplines and beyond servility. They are servile as they are not one with the clean system as they have their hands steeped in unclean resources. That is their job for one can only pinpoint what is wrong where? That is a job the former civil service performed well and did its bit to sort matters out. Now you do it Mr Nazims. The technocrats or is the 'technoc' part redundant. There used to be rats in the belfry now they are everywhere. Please understand the country does not belong to any entity and therefore the cause is helped much more by dialogue.
The loss to the farmers again runs into billions. I checked up with my friends in Sindh and they have lost their chilies and cotton crop while the sugarcane crop is under stress from too much standing water. This is going to be the new order of things. Those areas where there was less rain will have more and those that were submerged with water during the monsoon will have less. The pattern has changed like all other things in life. In any case, the difficulty is that there is no way that the prediction(s) can come through. You may have as many people to make idiotic statements the end-game is the same - do it. With out doing it the game is not there.
What this requires is a massive training programme for the farmers. Sensitive people should do it. It could be hands-on programme. When Paulo Feraire the Brazilian spoke of 'conscientization' he spoke of the ability 'to be'. Raising the levels of consciousness is the shortest way to achieve what this nation has to seek for the future - a reliable human ability that is based on intelligent, intellectual and a disciplined analytical ability. You think that creating a nation is a lark? You think that governance is easy? You got a heap of guessing to do.
Will anyone volunteer to work in the rural areas? Will the paid and mighty PhDs of agriculture so adept at showing off their degrees get down to work or is their self-esteem so poor that they are touts to the trade economy of Pakistan. Occasionally, they go out and become petrol pump attendants. But they have sworn an oath not to go to the rural areas. I understand.