China is set to increase its soyabean buying both because of low stocks and a smaller-than-expected soyabean crop, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. "Chinese purchases of soyabeans are likely to pick up in the coming weeks and months," Oil World said. "Domestic stocks of imported soyabeans have been reduced since early 2011 owing to reduced imports, while crushings have continued to rise."
China's January-July 2011 soyabean imports fell 5.5 percent on the year, although July imports rose 8 percent on the year and 24 percent against June 2011, Chinese official data showed on August 22. China also revealed plans in August to auction 4 million tonnes of soyabeans from its state stocks. The stock sale shows China's government wishes to stimulate more soyabean crushings to raise soyaoil and soyameal output to curb rising food prices, Oil World said.
"Also, this year's Chinese soyabean crop may turn out below expectations, adding to higher import demand," it said. "Owing to reduced plantings and the recent drought conditions in some major producing areas, primarily in Heilongjiang, this year's (2011/12) soyabean crop may fall below our estimate of 13.7 million tonnes." China harvested 14.6 million tonnes in the previous 2010/11 season. Oil World's estimate is already below the 14.0 million tonnes for 2011/12 forecast by the US Department of Agriculture on August 11.