The shelling of the Syrian opposition stronghold of Hama by government artillery and tanks has once again turned the eyes of the world towards Russia. The pressure on Moscow comes not merely because Russian-built T-72 tanks were used against demonstrators: Russia has been for many years an important supplier of arms to President Bashar al-Assad's embattled Syrian regime.
The Russian veto of a UN Security Council resolution condemning Syria's use of violence has caused anger within the international community. However, Russia's patience with al-Assad appears to have its limits. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin implied during a visit to Paris in June that Moscow would not stand by its long-time ally at any price. So far, however, his government has refused to countenance any outside intervention in Syria.
The crisis is an internal issue for Syria and not a threat to the stability of the region, has been Moscow's refrain. On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the bloodbath in Hama while calling for restraint from both the Syrian government and the opposition.
Russian diplomats have been holding behind-the-scenes talks with members of the Syrian opposition for some time. Observers see this as a clear indication that Russia has serious doubts about al-Assad's chances of long-term political survival. Moscow has also noted the president's failure to follow through on his reform promises, which was made clear by Putin's call in Paris for Syria to bring about change. "Russia understands and acknowledges that in the modern world it is impossible to use the political instruments of 40 years ago," Putin said.
"This concerns all countries, including Syria. I hope the Syrian leadership understands this, and will draw the necessary conclusions," the premier said. More surprisingly, Putin made clear that Russia's close ties with Syria dated back to the Soviet era and that no "special relationship" now exists with al-Assad's regime. "We do not have any special interests there: no army bases, no large projects, no multi-billion investments, which we would have to defend. There's nothing there," Putin said.
However, Putin did not mention a naval base in Syria's Tartus, which is used by Russian ships on patrol in the Mediterranean. Russian military sources have repeatedly said that the navy wants to retain its presence there, according to media reports. However, experts point out that the facility in Tartus is used more for the repair of warships than as a fully operational military base.
Moscow's talks with the Syrian opposition combined with Putin's comments are an indication that Russia's position could change, according to a political analyst at the state news agency RIA Novosti. Jelena Suponina said Russia has never before exerted as much pressure on Syria as now. "Even though Russia has considered Syria as one of its allies up until now, patience is running out," Suponina said. However, there is still no end in sight to Russia's veto over a UN Security Council resolution against Syria.
After all, Putin has compared the Western military intervention in Libya to a medieval crusade, and says it is based only on interest in the country's oil and other natural resources. With Russia due to vote for a new parliament in December and presidential elections scheduled for March, Moscow has little incentive to involve itself in complicated foreign affairs.
President Dmitry Medvedev garnered international praise because Russia did not block the earlier UN resolution against Libya. However, the leadership in Moscow has criticised virtually every act of violence since the start of the Western military offensive. Medvedev is considered by many as a lame-duck president ahead of the 2012 elections. "I will not support a Syria resolution even though my friends and acquaintances are urging me to do so," the Kommersant newspaper quoted Medvedev as saying this week.